Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 17/09, 16:00
Prediction: Tobol Kostanay vs FC Elimai Semey
Team pages: Tobol Kostanay · FC Elimai Semey
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Tobol Kostanay1.39
FC Elimai Semey1.14
1X2
Tobol Kostanay
Draw
FC Elimai Semey
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Tobol Kostanay
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
FC Elimai Semey
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tobol Kostanay
2–1–2
FC Elimai Semey
(5 last)
- FC Elimai Semey1-0Tobol Kostanay
- FC Elimai Semey2-3Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay1-1FC Elimai Semey
- FC Elimai Semey2-1Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay4-2FC Elimai Semey
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tobol Kostanay 1521 · FC Elimai Semey 1510
| Tobol Kostanay | Draw | FC Elimai Semey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tobol Kostanay | FC Elimai Semey | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 2.4 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 5.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tobol Kostanay 2–1–2 FC Elimai Semey
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 05/07/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 30/03/25 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 1-1 HT 1-0 | FC Elimai Semey |
| 15/09/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | FC Elimai Semey | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Tobol Kostanay |
| 06/03/24 Kazakhstan Premier League | Tobol Kostanay | 4-2 HT 2-1 | FC Elimai Semey |
Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 18 | 58 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 25 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 51 | 19 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 25 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 34 | 42 |
| 5 | FK Aktobe | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 36 | 29 | 41 |
| 6 | FC Elimai Semey | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 33 | 33 | 35 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 34 |
| 8 | FK Zhenys | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 29 | 32 |
| 9 | FK Ulytau | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 30 | 31 |
| 10 | FK Kaspyi Aktau | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 36 | 26 |
| 11 | FC Altai Semey | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 25 | 34 | 25 |
| 12 | FK Atyrau | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 25 | 23 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 33 | 23 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 32 | 23 |
| 15 | FK Kyzylzhar | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 43 | 22 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tobol Kostanay | FC Elimai Semey |
|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| FK Kaspyi Aktau | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Kaisar Kyzylorda | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Irtysh Pavlodar | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Ordabasy | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| FK Kyzylzhar | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tobol Kostanay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/07 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
FC Elimai Semey
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 16/08 | FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 19/07 | Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 04/07 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 8 | W |
| 27/06 | FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tobol Kostanay vs FC Elimai Semey?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tobol Kostanay win (42%). Probabilities: Tobol Kostanay 42%, draw 28%, FC Elimai Semey 30%.
How many goals are expected in Tobol Kostanay vs FC Elimai Semey?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Tobol Kostanay 1.39 · FC Elimai Semey 1.14), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tobol Kostanay vs FC Elimai Semey?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.