Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 10/10, 13:00

Prediction: FC Elimai Semey vs FK Aktobe

Team pages: FC Elimai Semey · FK Aktobe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

FC Elimai Semey1.73

FK Aktobe1.45

1X2

43% 26% 31%

FC Elimai Semey Draw FK Aktobe

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Elimai Semey 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWDLLWW

FK Aktobe 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLWWD

Head-to-head

FC Elimai Semey 4–2 FK Aktobe (6 last)

FK Aktobe2-1FC Elimai Semey
FK Aktobe1-4FC Elimai Semey
FC Elimai Semey2-1FK Aktobe
FK Aktobe1-0FC Elimai Semey
FK Aktobe1-3FC Elimai Semey
FC Elimai Semey2-1FK Aktobe

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Elimai Semey 1518 · FK Aktobe 1526

	FC Elimai Semey	Draw	FK Aktobe
Our model	43%	25%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Elimai Semey: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Elimai Semey	FK Aktobe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	2.9 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:13 +6’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Elimai Semey 4–0–2 FK Aktobe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 Kazakhstan Cup	FK Aktobe	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Elimai Semey
21/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	1-4 HT 1-0	FC Elimai Semey
10/08/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Elimai Semey	2-1 HT 0-1	FK Aktobe
11/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Elimai Semey
31/08/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	1-3 HT 1-1	FC Elimai Semey
19/06/24 Kazakhstan Cup	FC Elimai Semey	2-1 HT 0-1	FK Aktobe

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	51	18	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	17	6	3	51	20	57
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42	25	48
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	26	13	6	7	41	35	45
5	FK Aktobe	26	12	6	8	38	31	42
6	FC Elimai Semey	25	10	8	7	35	33	38
7	Tobol Kostanay	26	10	4	12	33	35	34
8	FK Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24	32	32
9	FK Zhenys	26	8	8	10	26	32	32
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	26	8	5	13	27	36	29
11	Irtysh Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26	34	26
12	FC Altai Semey	26	6	7	13	26	36	25
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	26	4	12	10	22	33	24
14	FK Kyzylzhar	26	6	6	14	26	40	24
15	FK Atyrau	25	4	11	10	18	28	23
16	Zhetysu	26	5	7	14	26	44	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Elimai Semey	FK Aktobe
FC Astana	0-4 L	2-3 L
FK Kaspyi Aktau	2-2 D	2-1 W
Irtysh Pavlodar	3-1 W	1-2 L
FK Zhenys	0-0 D	1-0 W
Kaisar Kyzylorda	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Kyzylzhar	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Aktobe (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Elimai Semey

WLDDWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
12/09	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	0	0	W
06/09	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-4	2	5	L
31/08	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-2	4	10	L
16/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	2-2	6	7	D
09/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	3-1	6	8	W
02/08	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
19/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-3	6	7	L
04/07	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	12	8	W

FK Aktobe

LWWLDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	2-2	7	5	D
12/09	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
05/09	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
30/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
15/08	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
09/08	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
01/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	8	6	L
25/07	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
19/07	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	4-2	5	9	W
12/07	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	2-3	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Elimai Semey vs FK Aktobe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Elimai Semey win (43%). Probabilities: FC Elimai Semey 43%, draw 26%, FK Aktobe 31%.

How many goals are expected in FC Elimai Semey vs FK Aktobe?

The model expects 3.18 goals (FC Elimai Semey 1.73 · FK Aktobe 1.45), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Elimai Semey vs FK Aktobe?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.