Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 10/10, 12:00

Prediction: Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Kyzylzhar

Team pages: Irtysh Pavlodar · FK Kyzylzhar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Irtysh Pavlodar1.65

FK Kyzylzhar1.01

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Irtysh Pavlodar Draw FK Kyzylzhar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Irtysh Pavlodar 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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FK Kyzylzhar 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Irtysh Pavlodar 1–2–3 FK Kyzylzhar (6 last)

Irtysh Pavlodar1-2FK Kyzylzhar
FK Kyzylzhar2-2Irtysh Pavlodar
Irtysh Pavlodar1-1FK Kyzylzhar
Irtysh Pavlodar0-1FK Kyzylzhar
FK Kyzylzhar1-0Irtysh Pavlodar
Irtysh Pavlodar5-0FK Kyzylzhar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Irtysh Pavlodar 1496 · FK Kyzylzhar 1464

	Irtysh Pavlodar	Draw	FK Kyzylzhar
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	51%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Kyzylzhar: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Irtysh Pavlodar	FK Kyzylzhar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.1 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.40

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +6’	1.75	3.40	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Irtysh Pavlodar 1–2–3 FK Kyzylzhar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Kazakhstan Cup	Irtysh Pavlodar	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Kyzylzhar
20/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kyzylzhar	2-2 HT 0-0	Irtysh Pavlodar
14/03/20 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Kyzylzhar
16/09/18 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Kyzylzhar
05/08/18 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kyzylzhar	1-0 HT 1-0	Irtysh Pavlodar
19/05/18 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	5-0 HT 3-0	FK Kyzylzhar

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	51	18	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	17	6	3	51	20	57
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42	25	48
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	26	13	6	7	41	35	45
5	FK Aktobe	26	12	6	8	38	31	42
6	FC Elimai Semey	25	10	8	7	35	33	38
7	Tobol Kostanay	26	10	4	12	33	35	34
8	FK Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24	32	32
9	FK Zhenys	26	8	8	10	26	32	32
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	26	8	5	13	27	36	29
11	Irtysh Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26	34	26
12	FC Altai Semey	26	6	7	13	26	36	25
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	26	4	12	10	22	33	24
14	FK Kyzylzhar	26	6	6	14	26	40	24
15	FK Atyrau	25	4	11	10	18	28	23
16	Zhetysu	26	5	7	14	26	44	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Irtysh Pavlodar	FK Kyzylzhar
FC Altai Semey	2-1 W	0-3 L
Zhetysu	0-1 L	2-1 W
FK Aktobe	2-1 W	3-1 W
Tobol Kostanay	0-2 L	1-1 D
FC Elimai Semey	1-3 L	0-1 L
FK Zhenys	0-1 L	1-3 L
Kaisar Kyzylorda	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kyzylzhar (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Irtysh Pavlodar

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
13/09	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
05/09	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	1	3	W
16/08	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
09/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-3	2	8	L
01/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	3-2	12	9	W
25/07	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
11/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
05/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	7	D

FK Kyzylzhar

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
12/09	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
05/09	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
29/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	2	0	L
16/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
08/08	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	0-3	6	2	L
01/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
25/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	11	W
18/07	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
04/07	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Kyzylzhar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Irtysh Pavlodar win (51%). Probabilities: Irtysh Pavlodar 51%, draw 27%, FK Kyzylzhar 22%.

How many goals are expected in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Kyzylzhar?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Irtysh Pavlodar 1.65 · FK Kyzylzhar 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Irtysh Pavlodar vs FK Kyzylzhar?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.