Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 10/10, 13:00

Prediction: Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana

Team pages: Tobol Kostanay · FC Astana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Tobol Kostanay1.22

FC Astana1.47

1X2

31% 27% 42%

Tobol Kostanay Draw FC Astana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tobol Kostanay 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWLWWL

FC Astana 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWWLW

Head-to-head

Tobol Kostanay 4–2 FC Astana (6 last)

FC Astana1-2Tobol Kostanay
FC Astana2-0Tobol Kostanay
Tobol Kostanay2-3FC Astana
FC Astana1-3Tobol Kostanay
Tobol Kostanay1-0FC Astana
Tobol Kostanay1-0FC Astana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tobol Kostanay 1511 · FC Astana 1563

	Tobol Kostanay	Draw	FC Astana
Our model	30%	28%	42%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Astana (rating 1511 vs 1563).
H2H favours Tobol Kostanay: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tobol Kostanay	FC Astana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	3.1 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:52 +27’	2.88	3.50	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tobol Kostanay 4–0–2 FC Astana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Kazakhstan Cup	FC Astana	1-2 HT 0-1	Tobol Kostanay
20/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	2-0 HT 1-0	Tobol Kostanay
19/09/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Tobol Kostanay	2-3 HT 2-2	FC Astana
10/05/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	1-3 HT 0-3	Tobol Kostanay
03/11/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	Tobol Kostanay	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Astana
08/05/24 Kazakhstan Cup	Tobol Kostanay	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Astana

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	51	18	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	17	6	3	51	20	57
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42	25	48
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	26	13	6	7	41	35	45
5	FK Aktobe	26	12	6	8	38	31	42
6	FC Elimai Semey	25	10	8	7	35	33	38
7	Tobol Kostanay	26	10	4	12	33	35	34
8	FK Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24	32	32
9	FK Zhenys	26	8	8	10	26	32	32
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	26	8	5	13	27	36	29
11	Irtysh Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26	34	26
12	FC Altai Semey	26	6	7	13	26	36	25
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	26	4	12	10	22	33	24
14	FK Kyzylzhar	26	6	6	14	26	40	24
15	FK Atyrau	25	4	11	10	18	28	23
16	Zhetysu	26	5	7	14	26	44	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tobol Kostanay	FC Astana
FC Elimai Semey	0-2 L	4-0 W
Kairat Almaty	4-1 W	1-0 W
FK Ulytau	3-1 W	2-0 W
Ordabasy	0-2 L	0-1 L
FK Atyrau	1-0 W	3-2 W
FK Kyzylzhar	1-1 D	1-1 D
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tobol Kostanay

WDWLWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-2	10	4	L
13/09	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	4-1	2	2	W
06/09	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
30/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
25/08	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
16/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
02/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
26/07	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
18/07	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
12/07	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	1	W

FC Astana

WWWWWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
12/09	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
06/09	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
30/08	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
16/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
09/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	9	4	W
02/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
26/07	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	4-1	9	3	W
12/07	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
03/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Astana win (42%). Probabilities: Tobol Kostanay 31%, draw 27%, FC Astana 42%.

How many goals are expected in Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Tobol Kostanay 1.22 · FC Astana 1.47), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.