Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 11/10, 12:00

Prediction: FK Ulytau vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau

Team pages: FK Ulytau · Okzhetpes Kokshetau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

FK Ulytau1.35

Okzhetpes Kokshetau1.62

1X2

31% 26% 43%

FK Ulytau Draw Okzhetpes Kokshetau

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Ulytau 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLWLLD

Okzhetpes Kokshetau 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWWLW

Head-to-head

FK Ulytau 1–1–3 Okzhetpes Kokshetau (5 last)

Okzhetpes Kokshetau2-1FK Ulytau
Okzhetpes Kokshetau1-0FK Ulytau
FK Ulytau0-1Okzhetpes Kokshetau
FK Ulytau2-0Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Okzhetpes Kokshetau1-1FK Ulytau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Ulytau 1446 · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1545

	FK Ulytau	Draw	Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Our model	31%	26%	43%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Okzhetpes Kokshetau (rating 1446 vs 1545).
H2H favours Okzhetpes Kokshetau: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Ulytau	Okzhetpes Kokshetau
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.5	1.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 20:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.90▲	Pinn 2.93
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.67 ★
2	2.25 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +11’	2.63	3.50	2.25
15:16 +21’	2.45▼	3.50	2.40▲
20:22 +3’	2.90▲	3.50	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:12 +205’	2.44	3.44	2.47
19:02 +84’	2.93▲	3.67▲	2.04▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Ulytau 1–1–3 Okzhetpes Kokshetau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Ulytau
19/07/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Ulytau
19/04/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Ulytau	0-1 HT 0-1	Okzhetpes Kokshetau
15/08/24 Kazakhstan Division 1	FK Ulytau	2-0 HT 2-0	Okzhetpes Kokshetau
31/05/24 Kazakhstan Division 1	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Ulytau

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	51	18	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	17	6	3	51	20	57
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42	25	48
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	26	13	6	7	41	35	45
5	FK Aktobe	26	12	6	8	38	31	42
6	FC Elimai Semey	25	10	8	7	35	33	38
7	Tobol Kostanay	26	10	4	12	33	35	34
8	FK Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24	32	32
9	FK Zhenys	26	8	8	10	26	32	32
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	26	8	5	13	27	36	29
11	Irtysh Pavlodar	25	6	8	11	26	34	26
12	FC Altai Semey	26	6	7	13	26	36	25
13	Kaisar Kyzylorda	26	4	12	10	22	33	24
14	FK Kyzylzhar	26	6	6	14	26	40	24
15	FK Atyrau	25	4	11	10	18	28	23
16	Zhetysu	26	5	7	14	26	44	22

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Ulytau	Okzhetpes Kokshetau
FK Aktobe	2-2 D	1-2 L
FC Altai Semey	0-3 L	4-1 W
Tobol Kostanay	1-3 L	1-3 L
Zhetysu	3-0 W	2-0 W
FC Astana	0-2 L	1-2 L
Irtysh Pavlodar	1-2 L	1-2 L
FK Zhenys	1-1 D	3-1 W
Kaisar Kyzylorda	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Okzhetpes Kokshetau (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Ulytau

WDLLDLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-2	6	5	D
13/09	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-3	9	5	L
06/09	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
29/08	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-0	3	7	W
15/08	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
08/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
02/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
25/07	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
18/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/07	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W

Okzhetpes Kokshetau

LWLWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
13/09	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	1-2	1	1	L
05/09	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
29/08	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	3-2	0	10	W
16/08	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
09/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	6	4	L
02/08	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	4-1	4	4	W
25/07	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-2	5	8	L
18/07	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
12/07	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-3	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Ulytau vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Okzhetpes Kokshetau win (43%). Probabilities: FK Ulytau 31%, draw 26%, Okzhetpes Kokshetau 43%.

How many goals are expected in FK Ulytau vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?

The model expects 2.97 goals (FK Ulytau 1.35 · Okzhetpes Kokshetau 1.62), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Ulytau vs Okzhetpes Kokshetau?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.