Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 31/10, 11:00

Prediction: Tobol Kostanay vs FK Aktobe

Team pages: Tobol Kostanay · FK Aktobe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Tobol Kostanay1.8

FK Aktobe1.44

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Tobol Kostanay Draw FK Aktobe

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Tobol Kostanay 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLWWD

FK Aktobe 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWDWLD

Head-to-head

Tobol Kostanay 4–1–1 FK Aktobe (6 last)

FK Aktobe4-1Tobol Kostanay
FK Aktobe0-0Tobol Kostanay
Tobol Kostanay2-0FK Aktobe
Tobol Kostanay3-0FK Aktobe
Tobol Kostanay2-0FK Aktobe
FK Aktobe3-4Tobol Kostanay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tobol Kostanay 1522 · FK Aktobe 1528

	Tobol Kostanay	Draw	FK Aktobe
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tobol Kostanay: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tobol Kostanay	FK Aktobe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:54 +13’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tobol Kostanay 4–1–1 FK Aktobe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	4-1 HT 1-0	Tobol Kostanay
20/07/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	0-0 HT 0-0	Tobol Kostanay
19/04/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Tobol Kostanay	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Aktobe
22/09/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	Tobol Kostanay	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Aktobe
06/07/24 Kazakhstan League Cup	Tobol Kostanay	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Aktobe
30/06/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Aktobe	3-4 HT 0-3	Tobol Kostanay

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	29	21	5	3	59	21	68
2	Kairat Almaty	29	19	7	3	59	22	64
3	FC Astana	29	15	8	6	46	29	53
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	29	15	6	8	45	37	51
5	FK Aktobe	29	13	7	9	44	37	46
6	FC Elimai Semey	29	12	9	8	42	40	45
7	Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	40	39	41
8	FK Ulytau	29	9	8	12	27	35	35
9	FK Zhenys	29	8	9	12	30	39	33
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	29	9	6	14	31	42	33
11	FK Kyzylzhar	29	8	6	15	29	41	30
12	Irtysh Pavlodar	29	7	8	14	29	44	29
13	FK Atyrau	29	5	12	12	24	35	27
14	FC Altai Semey	29	6	9	14	30	41	27
15	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	29	47	26
16	Kaisar Kyzylorda	29	4	13	12	24	39	25

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tobol Kostanay	FK Aktobe
FK Zhenys	4-2 W	1-0 W
FC Elimai Semey	0-2 L	3-1 W
Kairat Almaty	4-1 W	2-2 D
FK Ulytau	3-1 W	2-2 D
FK Kaspyi Aktau	0-1 L	2-1 W
Kaisar Kyzylorda	3-2 W	2-1 W
Irtysh Pavlodar	2-0 W	1-2 L
Ordabasy	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tobol Kostanay (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tobol Kostanay

LWWLWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
17/10	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	3-2	4-2	12	5	W
10/10	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
17/09	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-2	10	4	L
13/09	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	4-1	2	2	W
06/09	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
30/08	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
25/08	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
16/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
02/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	5	L

FK Aktobe

LDWLWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-2	6	6	D
17/10	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-3	1	6	L
10/10	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
18/09	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	2-2	7	5	D
12/09	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
05/09	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
30/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
15/08	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	9	4	W
09/08	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
01/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	8	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Aktobe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tobol Kostanay win (45%). Probabilities: Tobol Kostanay 45%, draw 25%, FK Aktobe 30%.

How many goals are expected in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Aktobe?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Tobol Kostanay 1.8 · FK Aktobe 1.44), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tobol Kostanay vs FK Aktobe?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.