Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 31/10, 11:00

Prediction: Irtysh Pavlodar vs Ordabasy

Team pages: Irtysh Pavlodar · Ordabasy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Irtysh Pavlodar1.14

Ordabasy1.89

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Irtysh Pavlodar Draw Ordabasy

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Irtysh Pavlodar 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLLLW

Ordabasy 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWD

Head-to-head

Irtysh Pavlodar 1–1–4 Ordabasy (6 last)

Ordabasy2-2Irtysh Pavlodar
Ordabasy2-0Irtysh Pavlodar
Ordabasy1-0Irtysh Pavlodar
Irtysh Pavlodar0-2Ordabasy
Ordabasy0-2Irtysh Pavlodar
Irtysh Pavlodar1-2Ordabasy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Irtysh Pavlodar 1472 · Ordabasy 1603

	Irtysh Pavlodar	Draw	Ordabasy
Our model	22%	25%	54%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ordabasy (rating 1472 vs 1603).
H2H favours Ordabasy: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Irtysh Pavlodar	Ordabasy
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	2.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	1.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.70

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:09 +5’	4.10	3.70	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Irtysh Pavlodar 1–1–4 Ordabasy

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Ordabasy	2-2 HT 1-1	Irtysh Pavlodar
26/10/19 Kazakhstan Premier League	Ordabasy	2-0 HT 0-0	Irtysh Pavlodar
28/07/19 Kazakhstan Premier League	Ordabasy	1-0 HT 0-0	Irtysh Pavlodar
11/05/19 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	0-2 HT 0-1	Ordabasy
22/09/18 Kazakhstan Premier League	Ordabasy	0-2 HT 0-1	Irtysh Pavlodar
15/07/18 Kazakhstan Premier League	Irtysh Pavlodar	1-2 HT 0-1	Ordabasy

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	29	21	5	3	59	21	68
2	Kairat Almaty	29	19	7	3	59	22	64
3	FC Astana	29	15	8	6	46	29	53
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	29	15	6	8	45	37	51
5	FK Aktobe	29	13	7	9	44	37	46
6	FC Elimai Semey	29	12	9	8	42	40	45
7	Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	40	39	41
8	FK Ulytau	29	9	8	12	27	35	35
9	FK Zhenys	29	8	9	12	30	39	33
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	29	9	6	14	31	42	33
11	FK Kyzylzhar	29	8	6	15	29	41	30
12	Irtysh Pavlodar	29	7	8	14	29	44	29
13	FK Atyrau	29	5	12	12	24	35	27
14	FC Altai Semey	29	6	9	14	30	41	27
15	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	29	47	26
16	Kaisar Kyzylorda	29	4	13	12	24	39	25

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Irtysh Pavlodar	Ordabasy
FK Atyrau	3-2 W	3-0 W
FC Astana	0-1 L	1-0 W
FK Kyzylzhar	0-2 L	3-0 W
FC Altai Semey	2-1 W	3-1 W
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	2-1 W	1-2 L
Zhetysu	0-1 L	4-0 W
FK Aktobe	2-1 W	3-1 W
Tobol Kostanay	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 4 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ordabasy (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Irtysh Pavlodar

LLWLWWLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
18/10	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-3	0-5	7	4	L
14/10	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
10/10	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
18/09	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
13/09	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
05/09	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	1	3	W
16/08	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
09/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-3	2	8	L

Ordabasy

WWWWLWWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	7	D
17/10	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	3-1	4	6	W
11/10	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	4-1	6	3	W
17/09	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
12/09	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
05/09	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
29/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
15/08	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	3-1	4	9	W
08/08	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	4-0	6	7	W
02/08	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Irtysh Pavlodar vs Ordabasy?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ordabasy win (54%). Probabilities: Irtysh Pavlodar 22%, draw 24%, Ordabasy 54%.

How many goals are expected in Irtysh Pavlodar vs Ordabasy?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Irtysh Pavlodar 1.14 · Ordabasy 1.89), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Irtysh Pavlodar vs Ordabasy?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.