Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 31/10, 11:00

Prediction: FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Kyzylzhar

Team pages: FK Kaspyi Aktau · FK Kyzylzhar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

FK Kaspyi Aktau1.63

FK Kyzylzhar0.95

1X2

53% 26% 21%

FK Kaspyi Aktau Draw FK Kyzylzhar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kaspyi Aktau 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLWWDL

FK Kyzylzhar 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLDWLW

Head-to-head

FK Kaspyi Aktau 1–2–3 FK Kyzylzhar (6 last)

FK Kyzylzhar2-1FK Kaspyi Aktau
FK Kaspyi Aktau1-2FK Kyzylzhar
FK Kyzylzhar1-1FK Kaspyi Aktau
FK Kyzylzhar4-1FK Kaspyi Aktau
FK Kyzylzhar1-3FK Kaspyi Aktau
FK Kaspyi Aktau1-1FK Kyzylzhar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1477 · FK Kyzylzhar 1486

	FK Kaspyi Aktau	Draw	FK Kyzylzhar
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Kyzylzhar: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kaspyi Aktau	FK Kyzylzhar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:54 +12’	1.70	3.50	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kaspyi Aktau 1–2–3 FK Kyzylzhar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kyzylzhar	2-1 HT 0-1	FK Kaspyi Aktau
19/08/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kaspyi Aktau	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Kyzylzhar
22/04/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kyzylzhar	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Kaspyi Aktau
06/11/22 Kazakhstan Premier League	FK Kyzylzhar	4-1 HT 2-0	FK Kaspyi Aktau
07/08/22 Kazakhstan Cup	FK Kyzylzhar	1-3 HT 1-0	FK Kaspyi Aktau
10/07/22 Kazakhstan Cup	FK Kaspyi Aktau	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Kyzylzhar

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	29	21	5	3	59	21	68
2	Kairat Almaty	29	19	7	3	59	22	64
3	FC Astana	29	15	8	6	46	29	53
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	29	15	6	8	45	37	51
5	FK Aktobe	29	13	7	9	44	37	46
6	FC Elimai Semey	29	12	9	8	42	40	45
7	Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	40	39	41
8	FK Ulytau	29	9	8	12	27	35	35
9	FK Zhenys	29	8	9	12	30	39	33
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	29	9	6	14	31	42	33
11	FK Kyzylzhar	29	8	6	15	29	41	30
12	Irtysh Pavlodar	29	7	8	14	29	44	29
13	FK Atyrau	29	5	12	12	24	35	27
14	FC Altai Semey	29	6	9	14	30	41	27
15	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	29	47	26
16	Kaisar Kyzylorda	29	4	13	12	24	39	25

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kaspyi Aktau	FK Kyzylzhar
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	0-3 L	0-1 L
FC Astana	2-2 D	1-1 D
FC Altai Semey	2-1 W	0-3 L
FK Aktobe	1-2 L	3-1 W
FK Ulytau	1-1 D	1-0 W
Irtysh Pavlodar	2-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kyzylzhar (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kaspyi Aktau

LDDWLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
18/10	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-2	0	3	D
11/10	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
18/09	Zhetysu Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
12/09	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
05/09	Kairat Almaty Kazakhstan Premier League	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
30/08	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
16/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-2	1	7	D
08/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
01/08	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-3	1	9	L

FK Kyzylzhar

WLDLLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
17/10	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
10/10	Irtysh Pavlodar Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
18/09	Kaisar Kyzylorda Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
12/09	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
05/09	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
29/08	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-1	0-3	2	0	L
16/08	FC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
08/08	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	0-3	6	2	L
01/08	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Kyzylzhar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kaspyi Aktau win (53%). Probabilities: FK Kaspyi Aktau 53%, draw 26%, FK Kyzylzhar 21%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Kyzylzhar?

The model expects 2.58 goals (FK Kaspyi Aktau 1.63 · FK Kyzylzhar 0.95), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kaspyi Aktau vs FK Kyzylzhar?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.