Football · Kazakhstan Premier League · 17/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty

Team pages: FC Astana · Kairat Almaty

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

FC Astana1.43

Kairat Almaty1.61

1X2

33% 27% 41%

FC Astana Draw Kairat Almaty

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Astana 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDWWL

Kairat Almaty 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

FC Astana 1–2–3 Kairat Almaty (6 last)

Kairat Almaty4-0FC Astana
Kairat Almaty1-1FC Astana
FC Astana1-1Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty0-1FC Astana
FC Astana1-3Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty1-0FC Astana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Astana 1557 · Kairat Almaty 1553

	FC Astana	Draw	Kairat Almaty
Our model	33%	26%	41%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kairat Almaty: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Astana	Kairat Almaty
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	2.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	1.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.30

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.75▲	Bet365 2.75
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.40 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:06 +44’	2.50	3.30	2.40
05:02 +5’	2.75▲	3.30	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Astana 1–2–3 Kairat Almaty

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	4-0 HT 4-0	FC Astana
26/10/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Astana
02/03/25 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	1-1 HT 1-0	Kairat Almaty
01/09/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Astana
29/06/24 Kazakhstan Premier League	FC Astana	1-3 HT 1-1	Kairat Almaty
27/08/23 Kazakhstan Premier League	Kairat Almaty	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Astana

Standings · Kazakhstan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ordabasy	25	18	4	3	48	18	58
2	Kairat Almaty	25	17	6	2	51	19	57
3	FC Astana	24	13	6	5	41	25	45
4	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	25	12	6	7	38	34	42
5	FK Aktobe	25	12	5	8	36	29	41
6	FC Elimai Semey	24	9	8	7	33	33	35
7	Tobol Kostanay	25	10	4	11	33	33	34
8	FK Zhenys	25	8	8	9	25	29	32
9	FK Ulytau	25	8	7	10	22	30	31
10	FK Kaspyi Aktau	25	7	5	13	26	36	26
11	FC Altai Semey	25	6	7	12	25	34	25
12	FK Atyrau	24	4	11	9	18	25	23
13	Irtysh Pavlodar	24	5	8	11	24	33	23
14	Kaisar Kyzylorda	25	4	11	10	21	32	23
15	FK Kyzylzhar	25	6	5	14	25	39	23
16	Zhetysu	25	5	7	13	26	43	22

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Astana	Kairat Almaty
Ordabasy	0-1 L	2-1 W
FC Elimai Semey	4-0 W	2-0 W
FK Atyrau	3-2 W	3-1 W
FK Kyzylzhar	1-1 D	4-2 W
Okzhetpes Kokshetau	2-1 W	5-0 W
FK Ulytau	2-0 W	3-1 W
FK Zhenys	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	7 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Kairat Almaty (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Astana

DWWWWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
06/09	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
30/08	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
16/08	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
09/08	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	2-1	9	4	W
02/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
26/07	FC Altai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-1	4-1	9	3	W
12/07	FK Aktobe Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-2	4	2	W
03/07	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
28/06	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-2	1	9	D

Kairat Almaty

WWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan Premier League	1-2	1-4	6	2	L
09/09	FK Zhenys Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
05/09	FK Kaspyi Aktau Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
31/08	FC Elimai Semey Kazakhstan Premier League	2-0	2-0	4	10	W
15/08	FK Ulytau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
26/07	Ordabasy Kazakhstan Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
18/07	FK Atyrau Kazakhstan Premier League	3-0	3-1	6	2	W
02/07	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	3-0	5-0	5	2	W
27/06	Okzhetpes Kokshetau Kazakhstan Premier League	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
21/06	FK Kyzylzhar Kazakhstan Premier League	2-2	4-2	3	11	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kairat Almaty win (41%). Probabilities: FC Astana 33%, draw 27%, Kairat Almaty 41%.

How many goals are expected in FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty?

The model expects 3.04 goals (FC Astana 1.43 · Kairat Almaty 1.61), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Astana vs Kairat Almaty?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.