Football · Brazil Serie C · 07/07, 00:00

Prediction: Brusque vs Figueirense

Expected goals: 2.22 (Brusque 1.4 · Figueirense 0.82). The model gives 50% home, 29% draw, 21% away. Over 2 goals (53%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-0.

Recent form leaves Brusque with 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; Figueirense has piled up 4-3-3 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Brusque won 2 and Figueirense 3, with 1 draw.

50%1
50% 29% 21%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brusque 1510 · Figueirense 1515
BrusqueDrawFigueirense
Our model49%30%21%
Market50%28%22%
Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
Expected goals2.22Brusque 1.4 · Figueirense 0.82
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 53%
BTTSNo · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Figueirense: 3-1-2.
  • High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

BrusqueFigueirense
Goals for / against (FT)1.4 / 1.10.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.30.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/60/10%10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)3.6 / 6.42 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.7 / 0.14.1 / 0.5

Head-to-head (H2H) · Brusque 213 Figueirense

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DateHomeScoreAway
15/01/26
Brazil Campeonato Catarinense
Brusque2-1
HT 2-0
Figueirense
07/07/25
Brazil Serie C
Brusque0-2
HT 0-1
Figueirense
06/02/25
Brazil Campeonato Catarinense
Figueirense1-0
HT 1-0
Brusque
27/01/24
Brazil Campeonato Catarinense
Brusque0-0
HT 0-0
Figueirense
18/06/23
Brazil Serie C
Brusque0-1
HT 0-1
Figueirense
11/03/23
Brazil Campeonato Catarinense
Brusque3-2
HT 2-0
Figueirense

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Guarani 12642 231122
2 Brusque 12633 171321
3 Paysandu 12624 191620
4 Ituano 12543 151219
5 Ferroviaria SP 12543 121019
6 Inter de Limeira 12543 151419
7 Santa Cruz FC 12534 12918
8 Floresta EC 12534 151418
9 Volta Redonda 12525 101117
10 Amazonas FC 12525 131617
11 Caxias RS 12453 121017
12 Botafogo PB 12516 151516
13 Maringa FC 12444 222416
14 Figueirense 12444 111516
15 Ypiranga RS 12435 151715
16 Maranhao 12354 91214
17 Barra FC 12264 141312
18 AD Confianca 12327 71011
19 Itabaiana 12246 91710
20 Anapolis FC 12237 9159

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentBrusqueFigueirense
Botafogo PB 0-2 L 2-1 W
Floresta EC 2-1 W 2-1 W
Barra FC 2-2 D 0-3 L
Anapolis FC 1-0 W 1-3 L
AD Confianca 2-1 W 0-0 D
Record vs common 3 W 1 D 1 L 2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Brusque (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brusque

WWDWLWDLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
01/07 Botafogo PB
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-2 94 L
21/06 Floresta EC
Brazil Serie C
1-1 2-1 82 W
14/06 Santa Cruz FC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-1 57 L
02/06 Barra FC
Brazil Serie C
0-1 2-2 133 D
24/05 Anapolis FC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-0 65 W
17/05 Ferroviaria SP
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-1 39 L
11/05 Ypiranga RS
Brazil Serie C
1-0 3-0 93 W
03/05 Volta Redonda
Brazil Serie C
1-0 1-1 55 D
25/04 AD Confianca
Brazil Serie C
0-0 2-1 64 W
21/04 Maringa FC
Brazil Serie C
2-1 3-2 06 W

Figueirense

WLLWLDWWDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
28/06 Guarani
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-1 55 D
21/06 Ituano
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 34 D
15/06 Floresta EC
Brazil Serie C
0-1 2-1 23 W
01/06 Paysandu
Brazil Serie C
1-1 2-1 611 W
24/05 AD Confianca
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 22 D
17/05 Itabaiana
Brazil Serie C
0-1 0-1 91 L
10/05 Amazonas FC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-0 25 W
05/05 Barra FC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-3 112 L
26/04 Anapolis FC
Brazil Serie C
1-0 1-3 37 L
19/04 Botafogo PB
Brazil Serie C
0-0 2-1 76 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brusque vs Figueirense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brusque win (50%). Probabilities: Brusque 50%, draw 29%, Figueirense 21%.

How many goals are expected in Brusque vs Figueirense?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Brusque 1.4 · Figueirense 0.82), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Brusque vs Figueirense?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.