Prediction: Ituano vs Ferroviaria SP
Expected goals: 1.86 (Ituano 1.02 · Ferroviaria SP 0.84). The model gives 39% home, 33% draw, 29% away. Under 2 goals (55%) and not both to score (53%). Most likely score: 0-0.
On recent form, Ituano is 3-4-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Ferroviaria SP 4-3-3 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Ituano and 3 for Ferroviaria SP, with 2 draws.
| Ituano | Draw | Ferroviaria SP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 35% | 28% |
| Market | 40% | 31% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Ferroviaria SP: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ituano | Ferroviaria SP | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.6 | 2.7 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ituano 1–2–3 Ferroviaria SP
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Ferroviaria SP | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ituano |
| 24/04/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Ituano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Ferroviaria SP |
| 17/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Ituano | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ferroviaria SP |
| 19/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Ituano | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Ferroviaria SP |
| 15/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Ferroviaria SP | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ituano |
| 22/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Ferroviaria SP | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Ituano |
Standings · Brazil Serie C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brusque | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Guarani | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Inter de Limeira | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 22 |
| 4 | Santa Cruz FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Paysandu | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 20 |
| 6 | Caxias RS | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Botafogo PB | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 8 | Maringa FC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 24 | 19 |
| 9 | Ituano | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| 10 | Floresta EC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 19 |
| 11 | Ferroviaria SP | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 19 |
| 12 | Ypiranga RS | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 13 | Amazonas FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 17 |
| 14 | Volta Redonda | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 17 |
| 15 | Figueirense | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Barra FC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 17 | Maranhao | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 14 |
| 18 | Itabaiana | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 13 |
| 19 | AD Confianca | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| 20 | Anapolis FC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ituano | Ferroviaria SP |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz FC | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Itabaiana | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Caxias RS | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ituano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 29/06 | Maranhao Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Figueirense Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Itabaiana Brazil Serie C |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Caxias RS Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 26/05 | Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Guarani Brazil Serie C |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 11/05 | AD Confianca Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 05/05 | Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 01/05 | Ferroviaria SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
Ferroviaria SP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Caxias RS Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Itabaiana Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/06 | Barra FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Brusque Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 14/05 | CA Juventus Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 12 | L |
| 10/05 | Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 07/05 | CA Juventus Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ituano vs Ferroviaria SP?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ituano win (39%). Probabilities: Ituano 39%, draw 33%, Ferroviaria SP 29%.
How many goals are expected in Ituano vs Ferroviaria SP?
The model expects 1.86 goals (Ituano 1.02 · Ferroviaria SP 0.84), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Ituano vs Ferroviaria SP?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.