Prediction: Paysandu vs Guarani
Expected goals: 2.82 (Paysandu 1.5 · Guarani 1.32). The model gives 40% home, 28% draw, 32% away. Over 2.25 goals (57%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Paysandu is 5-0-5 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Guarani 5-3-2 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for Paysandu and 1 for Guarani, with 1 draw.
| Paysandu | Draw | Guarani | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guarani (rating 1492 vs 1534).
- H2H favours Paysandu: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Paysandu | Guarani | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.6 | 3.5 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6 / 0.4 | 5.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Paysandu 4–1–1 Guarani
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/24 Brazil Serie B | Paysandu | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Guarani |
| 26/05/24 Brazil Serie B | Guarani | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Paysandu |
| 11/11/18 Brazil Serie B | Guarani | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Paysandu |
| 25/07/18 Brazil Serie B | Paysandu | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Guarani |
| 27/09/17 Brazil Serie B | Paysandu | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Guarani |
| 14/06/17 Brazil Serie B | Guarani | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Paysandu |
Standings · Brazil Serie C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brusque | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Guarani | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Inter de Limeira | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 22 |
| 4 | Santa Cruz FC | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Paysandu | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 20 |
| 6 | Caxias RS | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Botafogo PB | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 19 |
| 8 | Maringa FC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 24 | 19 |
| 9 | Ituano | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| 10 | Floresta EC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 19 |
| 11 | Ferroviaria SP | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 19 |
| 12 | Ypiranga RS | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 13 | Amazonas FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 17 |
| 14 | Volta Redonda | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 17 |
| 15 | Figueirense | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Barra FC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 17 | Maranhao | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 14 |
| 18 | Itabaiana | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 13 |
| 19 | AD Confianca | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| 20 | Anapolis FC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Paysandu | Guarani |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz FC | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Figueirense | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Floresta EC | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Guarani (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Paysandu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
0-2 | 1-3 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Maranhao Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 8 | L |
| 07/06 | Anapolis FC Brazil Copa Verde |
1-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 10 | W |
| 05/06 | Anapolis FC Brazil Copa Verde |
0-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 01/06 | Figueirense Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 11 | L |
| 29/05 | Nacional AM Brazil Copa Norte |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 26/05 | Floresta EC Brazil Serie C |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 21/05 | Nacional AM Brazil Copa Verde |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Guarani
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Floresta EC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Figueirense Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 23/06 | AD Confianca Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 13/06 | Caxias RS Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Barra FC Brazil Serie C |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Ituano Brazil Serie C |
1-2 | 1-3 | 13 | 10 | L |
| 12/05 | Maringa FC Brazil Serie C |
3-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 02/05 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 28/04 | Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Paysandu vs Guarani?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Paysandu win (40%). Probabilities: Paysandu 40%, draw 28%, Guarani 32%.
How many goals are expected in Paysandu vs Guarani?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Paysandu 1.5 · Guarani 1.32), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Paysandu vs Guarani?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.