Football · Brazil Serie C · 23/08, 00:30

Prediction: AD Confianca vs Anapolis FC

Team pages: AD Confianca · Anapolis FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

AD Confianca1.23

Anapolis FC0.74

1X2

47% 31% 22%

AD Confianca Draw Anapolis FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

AD Confianca 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Anapolis FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AD Confianca 1–0 Anapolis FC (1 last)

AD Confianca2-0Anapolis FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Confianca 1457 · Anapolis FC 1482

	AD Confianca	Draw	Anapolis FC
Our model	47%	32%	21%
Market	48%	30%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Confianca	Anapolis FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.5	1.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	3.10 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.11
2	3.90 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +11’	1.85	3.10	3.90
20:30 +3’	1.75▼	3.10	4.20▲
11:29 +9’	1.85▲	3.00▼	4.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:12	1.80	3.26	4.33
20:23 +11’	1.90▲	3.16▼	4.01▼
00:18 +1’	1.92▲	3.10▼	4.02▲
07:38 +1’	1.93▲	3.10	3.99▼
22:59 +5’	1.93▲	3.08▼	4.00▲
04:08	1.93▼	3.11▲	3.99▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Confianca 1–0–0 Anapolis FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/08/25 Brazil Serie C	AD Confianca	2-0 HT 1-0	Anapolis FC

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brusque	17	9	3	5	25	19	30
2	Inter de Limeira	17	8	4	5	22	20	28
3	Botafogo PB	17	8	3	6	23	18	27
4	Guarani	17	7	6	4	31	19	27
5	Ferroviaria SP	17	7	6	4	21	14	27
6	Paysandu	17	8	2	7	25	26	26
7	Santa Cruz FC	17	7	4	6	17	14	25
8	Ypiranga RS	17	7	4	6	24	22	25
9	Amazonas FC	17	7	3	7	18	20	24
10	Caxias RS	17	6	6	5	17	14	24
11	Maringa FC	17	6	6	5	29	29	24
12	Floresta EC	17	6	6	5	18	19	24
13	Maranhao	17	6	6	5	14	15	24
14	Figueirense	17	6	6	5	17	21	24
15	Ituano	17	6	4	7	18	18	22
16	Volta Redonda	17	6	3	8	12	21	21
17	Barra FC	17	4	6	7	18	19	18
18	Itabaiana	17	4	5	8	13	21	17
19	Anapolis FC	17	4	3	10	15	21	15
20	AD Confianca	17	3	4	10	11	18	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Confianca	Anapolis FC
Maringa FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Itabaiana	1-1 D	2-0 W
Botafogo PB	0-2 L	0-2 L
Guarani	2-0 W	2-1 W
Volta Redonda	0-1 L	4-1 W
Floresta EC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Confianca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
11/08	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	0	6	L
25/07	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
13/07	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-2	8	1	L
05/07	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
29/06	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
23/06	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	8	7	W
15/06	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
30/05	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
24/05	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	9	2	D

Anapolis FC

LDLWDLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
11/08	Guarani Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-1	7	8	W
26/07	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	1-1	4-1	0	3	W
12/07	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
06/07	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-2	1	8	L
01/07	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	4	10	D
20/06	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
13/06	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
31/05	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
24/05	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Confianca vs Anapolis FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Confianca win (47%). Probabilities: AD Confianca 47%, draw 31%, Anapolis FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in AD Confianca vs Anapolis FC?

The model expects 1.97 goals (AD Confianca 1.23 · Anapolis FC 0.74), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Confianca vs Anapolis FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.