Football · Brazil Serie C · 29/08, 22:00

Prediction: Floresta EC vs Ituano

Team pages: Floresta EC · Ituano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Floresta EC1.34

Ituano0.64

1X2

53% 30% 17%

Floresta EC Draw Ituano

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Floresta EC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWDDDLWW

Ituano 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDDDLLLWLL

Head-to-head

Floresta EC 0–1–0 Ituano (1 last)

Ituano0-0Floresta EC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Floresta EC 1511 · Ituano 1438

	Floresta EC	Draw	Ituano
Our model	52%	31%	17%
Market	53%	29%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Floresta EC (rating 1511 vs 1438).
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Floresta EC	Ituano
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	0.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	3.2 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.10

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.77 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.23
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
22:33 +6’	1.67	3.10	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:39 +1’	1.84	3.27	4.14
02:38	1.80▼	3.24▼	4.27▲
04:18 +1’	1.77▼	3.23▼	4.41▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Floresta EC 0–1–0 Ituano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/25 Brazil Serie C	Ituano	0-0 HT 0-0	Floresta EC

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brusque	18	9	4	5	26	20	31
2	Botafogo PB	18	9	3	6	26	19	30
3	Paysandu	18	9	2	7	26	26	29
4	Inter de Limeira	18	8	5	5	22	20	29
5	Santa Cruz FC	18	8	4	6	19	14	28
6	Ypiranga RS	18	8	4	6	25	22	28
7	Guarani	18	7	6	5	32	22	27
8	Ferroviaria SP	18	7	6	5	21	15	27
9	Maranhao	18	7	6	5	18	16	27
10	Maringa FC	18	7	6	5	31	30	27
11	Floresta EC	18	7	6	5	20	20	27
12	Amazonas FC	18	7	4	7	19	21	25
13	Figueirense	18	6	7	5	17	21	25
14	Caxias RS	18	6	6	6	17	16	24
15	Ituano	18	6	4	8	18	19	22
16	Volta Redonda	18	6	3	9	13	23	21
17	Anapolis FC	18	5	3	10	16	21	18
18	Barra FC	18	4	6	8	19	21	18
19	Itabaiana	18	4	5	9	14	25	17
20	AD Confianca	18	3	4	11	11	19	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Floresta EC	Ituano
Volta Redonda	2-1 W	0-1 L
Caxias RS	0-0 D	1-2 L
Barra FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Brusque	1-2 L	0-1 L
Figueirense	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Floresta EC

WLLWDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	1-1	2-1	2	1	W
16/08	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
09/08	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	0-3	1-4	4	6	L
28/07	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	4	0	D
11/07	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
05/07	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
27/06	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-1	9	0	W
21/06	Brusque Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
15/06	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
30/05	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	8	2	W

Ituano

LDDDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	8	8	L
15/08	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
09/08	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	12	3	W
26/07	Brusque Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
12/07	Ferroviaria SP Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-3	10	7	L
05/07	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	9	6	L
29/06	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
21/06	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
14/06	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-2	2-2	7	6	D
31/05	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Floresta EC vs Ituano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Floresta EC win (53%). Probabilities: Floresta EC 53%, draw 30%, Ituano 17%.

How many goals are expected in Floresta EC vs Ituano?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Floresta EC 1.34 · Ituano 0.64), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Floresta EC vs Ituano?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.