Football · Brazil Serie C · 29/08, 22:00

Prediction: Ferroviaria SP vs AD Confianca

Team pages: Ferroviaria SP · AD Confianca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Ferroviaria SP1.63

AD Confianca0.57

1X2

63% 25% 12%

Ferroviaria SP Draw AD Confianca

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviaria SP 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWDDWL

AD Confianca 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLDLDL

Head-to-head

Ferroviaria SP 1–0 AD Confianca (1 last)

Ferroviaria SP1-0AD Confianca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviaria SP 1515 · AD Confianca 1443

	Ferroviaria SP	Draw	AD Confianca
Our model	62%	26%	12%
Market	63%	24%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviaria SP (rating 1515 vs 1443).
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviaria SP	AD Confianca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6	2.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X3.70

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 05:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.40▼	Pinn 1.47
X	3.50 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.90 ★
2	6.50 → 7.00▲	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:35 +4’	1.48	3.50	6.50
02:31 +8’	1.33▼	4.00▲	9.50▲
04:15 +5’	1.25▼	4.33▲	11.00▲
05:37 +20’	1.40▲	3.70▼	7.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:39 +1’	1.45	4.02	6.48
23:50 +1’	1.48▲	3.93▼	6.17▼
02:38	1.44▼	4.04▲	6.72▲
04:18 +1’	1.41▼	4.10▲	6.95▲
05:57	1.47▲	3.90▼	6.24▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviaria SP 1–0–0 AD Confianca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/24 Brazil Serie C	Ferroviaria SP	1-0 HT 1-0	AD Confianca

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brusque	18	9	4	5	26	20	31
2	Botafogo PB	18	9	3	6	26	19	30
3	Paysandu	18	9	2	7	26	26	29
4	Inter de Limeira	18	8	5	5	22	20	29
5	Santa Cruz FC	18	8	4	6	19	14	28
6	Ypiranga RS	18	8	4	6	25	22	28
7	Guarani	18	7	6	5	32	22	27
8	Ferroviaria SP	18	7	6	5	21	15	27
9	Maranhao	18	7	6	5	18	16	27
10	Maringa FC	18	7	6	5	31	30	27
11	Floresta EC	18	7	6	5	20	20	27
12	Amazonas FC	18	7	4	7	19	21	25
13	Figueirense	18	6	7	5	17	21	25
14	Caxias RS	18	6	6	6	17	16	24
15	Ituano	18	6	4	8	18	19	22
16	Volta Redonda	18	6	3	9	13	23	21
17	Anapolis FC	18	5	3	10	16	21	18
18	Barra FC	18	4	6	8	19	21	18
19	Itabaiana	18	4	5	9	14	25	17
20	AD Confianca	18	3	4	11	11	19	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviaria SP	AD Confianca
Ypiranga RS	0-1 L	1-1 D
Paysandu	4-0 W	1-2 L
Itabaiana	0-1 L	1-1 D
Barra FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferroviaria SP

DWWLLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
18/08	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	2-0	4-0	7	11	W
08/08	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
25/07	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	11	8	D
12/07	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	3-1	5	7	W
05/07	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
28/06	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
21/06	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
16/06	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
31/05	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	8	6	D

AD Confianca

LLWDLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
16/08	Maringa FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
11/08	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	0	6	L
25/07	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
13/07	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-2	8	1	L
05/07	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
29/06	Ypiranga RS Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
23/06	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-0	2-0	8	7	W
15/06	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
30/05	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	0-1	0-1	11	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviaria SP vs AD Confianca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviaria SP win (63%). Probabilities: Ferroviaria SP 63%, draw 25%, AD Confianca 12%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviaria SP vs AD Confianca?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Ferroviaria SP 1.63 · AD Confianca 0.57), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviaria SP vs AD Confianca?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.