Prediction: Ypiranga RS vs Paysandu
Expected goals: 2.86 (Ypiranga RS 1.47 · Paysandu 1.4). The model gives 38% home, 28% draw, 34% away. Over 2.25 goals (55%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Ypiranga RS with 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses over 10 games; Paysandu has piled up 5-0-5 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Ypiranga RS and 2 for Paysandu, with 2 draws.
| Ypiranga RS | Draw | Paysandu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paysandu (rating 1473 vs 1518).
- High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ypiranga RS | Paysandu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.9 | 3.5 / 7.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 6.2 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ypiranga RS 2–2–2 Paysandu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/23 Brazil Serie C | Ypiranga RS | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Paysandu |
| 30/04/22 Brazil Serie C | Paysandu | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ypiranga RS |
| 16/01/21 Brazil Serie C | Ypiranga RS | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Paysandu |
| 13/12/20 Brazil Serie C | Paysandu | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Ypiranga RS |
| 29/06/19 Brazil Serie C | Paysandu | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ypiranga RS |
| 27/04/19 Brazil Serie C | Ypiranga RS | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Paysandu |
Standings · Brazil Serie C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guarani | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Brusque | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | Paysandu | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 4 | Ituano | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 19 |
| 5 | Ferroviaria SP | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Inter de Limeira | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | Santa Cruz FC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 18 |
| 8 | Floresta EC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 18 |
| 9 | Volta Redonda | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Amazonas FC | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 17 |
| 11 | Caxias RS | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
| 12 | Botafogo PB | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| 13 | Maringa FC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 24 | 16 |
| 14 | Figueirense | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 16 |
| 15 | Ypiranga RS | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
| 16 | Maranhao | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 14 |
| 17 | Barra FC | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 18 | AD Confianca | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 |
| 19 | Itabaiana | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 10 |
| 20 | Anapolis FC | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ypiranga RS | Paysandu |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Cruz FC | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Inter de Limeira | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Caxias RS | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Anapolis FC | 3-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Ypiranga RS (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ypiranga RS
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | AD Confianca Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 21/06 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 16/06 | Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 7 | D |
| 31/05 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 25/05 | Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Maringa FC Brazil Serie C |
1-2 | 1-4 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Brusque Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/05 | Ituano Brazil Serie C |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 28/04 | Caxias RS Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Anapolis FC Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Paysandu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C |
0-2 | 1-3 | 14 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Maranhao Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C |
0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 8 | L |
| 07/06 | Anapolis FC Brazil Copa Verde |
1-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 10 | W |
| 05/06 | Anapolis FC Brazil Copa Verde |
0-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 01/06 | Figueirense Brazil Serie C |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 11 | L |
| 29/05 | Nacional AM Brazil Copa Norte |
2-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 26/05 | Floresta EC Brazil Serie C |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 21/05 | Nacional AM Brazil Copa Norte |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Caxias RS Brazil Serie C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ypiranga RS vs Paysandu?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ypiranga RS win (38%). Probabilities: Ypiranga RS 38%, draw 28%, Paysandu 34%.
How many goals are expected in Ypiranga RS vs Paysandu?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Ypiranga RS 1.47 · Paysandu 1.4), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Ypiranga RS vs Paysandu?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.