Football · Brazil Serie C · 22/08, 22:00

Prediction: Ituano vs Paysandu

Team pages: Ituano · Paysandu

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Ituano1.42
Paysandu1.09
1X2
43% 29% 28%
Ituano Draw Paysandu
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ituano 2-3-5 (W-D-L)
WLDDDLLLWL
Paysandu 4-0-6 (W-D-L)
WLLWLLWLWL
Head-to-head
Ituano 2–2 Paysandu (4 last)
  • Paysandu1-0Ituano
  • Ituano3-5Paysandu
  • Paysandu1-4Ituano
  • Ituano3-1Paysandu
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ituano 1453 · Paysandu 1472
ItuanoDrawPaysandu
Our model43%29%28%
Market43%29%28%
Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

  • High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

ItuanoPaysandu
Goals for / against (FT)0.7 / 11.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)0 / 0.40.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)0/70/30%10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)2.9 / 7.33.4 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.2 / 0.26.3 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ituano 202 Paysandu

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DateHomeScoreAway
28/09/24
Brazil Serie B
Paysandu1-0
HT 1-0
Ituano
15/06/24
Brazil Serie B
Ituano3-5
HT 2-3
Paysandu
23/10/21
Brazil Serie C
Paysandu1-4
HT 0-1
Ituano
16/10/21
Brazil Serie C
Ituano3-1
HT 2-1
Paysandu

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Brusque 17935 251930
2 Inter de Limeira 17845 222028
3 Botafogo PB 17836 231827
4 Guarani 17764 311927
5 Ferroviaria SP 17764 211427
6 Paysandu 17827 252626
7 Santa Cruz FC 17746 171425
8 Ypiranga RS 17746 242225
9 Amazonas FC 17737 182024
10 Caxias RS 17665 171424
11 Maringa FC 17665 292924
12 Floresta EC 17665 181924
13 Maranhao 17665 141524
14 Figueirense 17665 172124
15 Ituano 17647 181822
16 Volta Redonda 17638 122121
17 Barra FC 17467 181918
18 Itabaiana 17458 132117
19 Anapolis FC 174310 152115
20 AD Confianca 173410 111813

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentItuanoPaysandu
Ferroviaria SP 1-3 L 0-4 L
Santa Cruz FC 0-1 L 1-3 L
Maranhao 0-0 D 1-0 W
Figueirense 0-0 D 1-2 L
Record vs common 0 W 2 D 2 L 1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ituano (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ituano

WLDDDLLLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
15/08 Volta Redonda
Brazil Serie C
0-1 0-1 46 L
09/08 Barra FC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 2-0 123 W
26/07 Brusque
Brazil Serie C
0-1 0-1 76 L
12/07 Ferroviaria SP
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-3 107 L
05/07 Santa Cruz FC
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-1 94 L
29/06 Maranhao
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 67 D
21/06 Figueirense
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-0 104 D
14/06 Itabaiana
Brazil Serie C
0-2 2-2 76 D
31/05 Caxias RS
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-2 46 L
26/05 Botafogo PB
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-0 45 W

Paysandu

WLLWLLWLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/08 Ferroviaria SP
Brazil Serie C
0-2 0-4 411 L
11/08 AD Confianca
Brazil Serie C
0-1 2-1 76 W
27/07 Amazonas FC
Brazil Serie C
1-1 1-2 56 L
12/07 Guarani
Brazil Serie C
0-2 3-2 107 W
05/07 Ypiranga RS
Brazil Serie C
0-0 0-1 52 L
27/06 Santa Cruz FC
Brazil Serie C
0-2 1-3 144 L
21/06 Maranhao
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-0 73 W
14/06 Inter de Limeira
Brazil Serie C
0-0 1-2 128 L
01/06 Figueirense
Brazil Serie C
1-1 1-2 111 L
26/05 Floresta EC
Brazil Serie C
2-0 2-1 59 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ituano vs Paysandu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ituano win (43%). Probabilities: Ituano 43%, draw 29%, Paysandu 28%.

How many goals are expected in Ituano vs Paysandu?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Ituano 1.42 · Paysandu 1.09), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ituano vs Paysandu?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.