Football · Brazil Serie C · 23/08, 23:30

Prediction: Ypiranga RS vs Ferroviaria SP

Team pages: Ypiranga RS · Ferroviaria SP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Ypiranga RS1.3

Ferroviaria SP1.06

1X2

41% 29% 29%

Ypiranga RS Draw Ferroviaria SP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ypiranga RS 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWDWLWWD

Ferroviaria SP 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLWDDW

Head-to-head

Ypiranga RS 0–1–2 Ferroviaria SP (3 last)

Ferroviaria SP4-2Ypiranga RS
Ypiranga RS0-0Ferroviaria SP
Ypiranga RS0-1Ferroviaria SP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ypiranga RS 1518 · Ferroviaria SP 1537

	Ypiranga RS	Draw	Ferroviaria SP
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ferroviaria SP: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ypiranga RS	Ferroviaria SP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	5.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.28 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.13

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:14 +9’	2.10	3.10	3.10
23:39 +13’	2.15▲	3.10	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:49 +1’	2.27	3.02	3.12
14:24 +1’	2.28▲	2.99▼	3.13▲
06:18	2.29▲	2.98▼	3.13
12:52 +10’	2.28▼	3.00▲	3.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ypiranga RS 0–1–2 Ferroviaria SP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/10/24 Brazil Serie C	Ferroviaria SP	4-2 HT 2-1	Ypiranga RS
01/09/24 Brazil Serie C	Ypiranga RS	0-0 HT 0-0	Ferroviaria SP
04/08/24 Brazil Serie C	Ypiranga RS	0-1 HT 0-1	Ferroviaria SP

Standings · Brazil Serie C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brusque	17	9	3	5	25	19	30
2	Inter de Limeira	17	8	4	5	22	20	28
3	Botafogo PB	17	8	3	6	23	18	27
4	Guarani	17	7	6	4	31	19	27
5	Ferroviaria SP	17	7	6	4	21	14	27
6	Paysandu	17	8	2	7	25	26	26
7	Santa Cruz FC	17	7	4	6	17	14	25
8	Ypiranga RS	17	7	4	6	24	22	25
9	Amazonas FC	17	7	3	7	18	20	24
10	Caxias RS	17	6	6	5	17	14	24
11	Maringa FC	17	6	6	5	29	29	24
12	Floresta EC	17	6	6	5	18	19	24
13	Maranhao	17	6	6	5	14	15	24
14	Figueirense	17	6	6	5	17	21	24
15	Ituano	17	6	4	7	18	18	22
16	Volta Redonda	17	6	3	8	12	21	21
17	Barra FC	17	4	6	7	18	19	18
18	Itabaiana	17	4	5	8	13	21	17
19	Anapolis FC	17	4	3	10	15	21	15
20	AD Confianca	17	3	4	10	11	18	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ypiranga RS	Ferroviaria SP
Barra FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Maranhao	1-2 L	0-0 D
Paysandu	1-0 W	4-0 W
Santa Cruz FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Inter de Limeira	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ferroviaria SP (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ypiranga RS

LLDWDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Guarani Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
09/08	Floresta EC Brazil Serie C	3-0	4-1	4	6	W
26/07	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
12/07	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/07	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/06	AD Confianca Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
21/06	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-0	2	8	W
16/06	Botafogo PB Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	12	7	D
31/05	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
25/05	Volta Redonda Brazil Serie C	0-1	1-2	7	4	L

Ferroviaria SP

WDWWLLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Paysandu Brazil Serie C	2-0	4-0	7	11	W
08/08	Figueirense Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
25/07	Maranhao Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-0	11	8	D
12/07	Ituano Brazil Serie C	0-0	3-1	5	7	W
05/07	Caxias RS Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
28/06	Itabaiana Brazil Serie C	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
21/06	Inter de Limeira Brazil Serie C	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
16/06	Barra FC Brazil Serie C	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
31/05	Santa Cruz FC Brazil Serie C	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
24/05	Amazonas FC Brazil Serie C	0-1	2-1	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ypiranga RS vs Ferroviaria SP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ypiranga RS win (41%). Probabilities: Ypiranga RS 41%, draw 29%, Ferroviaria SP 29%.

How many goals are expected in Ypiranga RS vs Ferroviaria SP?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Ypiranga RS 1.3 · Ferroviaria SP 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ypiranga RS vs Ferroviaria SP?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.