Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 07/11, 17:30

Prediction: Degerfors vs GAIS

Team pages: Degerfors · GAIS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Degerfors1.06

GAIS1.5

1X2

26% 28% 47%

Degerfors Draw GAIS

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Degerfors 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDLLLL

GAIS 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWLLDW

Head-to-head

Degerfors 1–2–3 GAIS (6 last)

GAIS1-1Degerfors
Degerfors0-3GAIS
GAIS2-0Degerfors
Degerfors2-2GAIS
GAIS1-0Degerfors
Degerfors2-1GAIS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Degerfors 1418 · GAIS 1502

	Degerfors	Draw	GAIS
Our model	25%	28%	46%
Market	26%	27%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours GAIS (rating 1418 vs 1502).
H2H favours GAIS: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Degerfors	GAIS
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:14 +56’	3.50	3.40	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Degerfors 1–2–3 GAIS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	GAIS	1-1 HT 1-0	Degerfors
19/07/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Degerfors	0-3 HT 0-1	GAIS
13/04/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	GAIS	2-0 HT 2-0	Degerfors
24/02/24 Sweden Cup	Degerfors	2-2 HT 0-0	GAIS
09/02/23 Club Friendly List	GAIS	1-0 HT 1-0	Degerfors
07/11/20 Sweden Superettan	Degerfors	2-1 HT 2-1	GAIS

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby	27	17	4	6	56	22	55
2	Sirius	26	17	4	5	56	34	55
3	Djurgarden	27	16	4	7	55	25	52
4	BK Hacken	27	13	10	4	48	30	49
5	Elfsborg	27	12	10	5	41	27	46
6	Vasteras SK	27	13	5	9	40	38	44
7	Malmo FF	27	12	4	11	42	36	40
8	AIK	26	10	8	8	42	45	38
9	IFK Goteborg	27	10	8	9	36	46	38
10	GAIS	26	9	7	10	32	26	34
11	Brommapojkarna	27	9	7	11	39	44	34
12	Mjällby AIF	26	6	8	12	30	43	26
13	Kalmar FF	26	6	4	16	23	42	22
14	Degerfors	27	5	5	17	22	46	20
15	Orgryte IS	27	4	7	16	33	60	19
16	Halmstad	26	4	5	17	18	49	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Degerfors	GAIS
Djurgarden	1-2 L	0-2 L
BK Hacken	0-4 L	0-0 D
Kalmar FF	1-2 L	1-0 W
Mjällby AIF	1-1 D	3-0 W
Hammarby	0-1 L	0-2 L
Sirius	0-2 L	0-1 L
Brommapojkarna	0-2 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: GAIS (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Degerfors

LLWLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	1-2	1	4	L
28/10	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
24/10	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-4	0-4	6	2	L
19/10	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-2	10	3	L
10/10	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	5	0	D
20/09	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
14/09	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
05/09	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	2-0	12	3	W
29/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
23/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-2	0	2	L

GAIS

LLWDLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/10	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	8	8	D
18/10	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
10/10	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
20/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	0	5	W
14/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
05/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
31/08	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	4-0	7	4	W
23/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
16/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Degerfors vs GAIS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an GAIS win (47%). Probabilities: Degerfors 26%, draw 28%, GAIS 47%.

How many goals are expected in Degerfors vs GAIS?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Degerfors 1.06 · GAIS 1.5), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Degerfors vs GAIS?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.