Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 08/11, 16:30

Prediction: Kalmar FF vs Sirius

Team pages: Kalmar FF · Sirius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Kalmar FF1.16

Sirius1.44

1X2

30% 27% 43%

Kalmar FF Draw Sirius

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Kalmar FF 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLWLL

Sirius 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWDLL

Head-to-head

Kalmar FF 1–1–4 Sirius (6 last)

Sirius3-2Kalmar FF
Sirius3-1Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF1-2Sirius
Kalmar FF1-0Sirius
Sirius3-0Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF2-2Sirius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kalmar FF 1407 · Sirius 1524

	Kalmar FF	Draw	Sirius
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sirius (rating 1407 vs 1524).
H2H favours Sirius: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kalmar FF	Sirius
Goals for / against (FT)	0.2 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2.4 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.70

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 11:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.88▼	Pinn 3.00 ★
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
10:07 +5’	3.00	3.70	2.10
03:16 +2’	2.80▼	3.60▼	2.20▲
05:11 +13’	2.90▲	3.60	2.25▲
11:21 +19’	2.88▼	3.60	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:19 +18’	3.09	3.50	2.19
20:41 +19’	2.93▼	3.54▲	2.31▲
00:51 +38’	3.00▲	3.55▲	2.27▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 3 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kalmar FF 1–1–4 Sirius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	3-2 HT 0-2	Kalmar FF
11/08/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	3-1 HT 0-0	Kalmar FF
08/04/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	1-2 HT 0-0	Sirius
09/03/24 Club Friendly List	Kalmar FF	1-0 HT 1-0	Sirius
13/08/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Sirius	3-0 HT 3-0	Kalmar FF
03/05/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Kalmar FF	2-2 HT 2-0	Sirius

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	27	18	4	5	58	34	58
2	Hammarby	27	17	4	6	56	22	55
3	Djurgarden	27	16	4	7	55	25	52
4	BK Hacken	27	13	10	4	48	30	49
5	Elfsborg	27	12	10	5	41	27	46
6	Vasteras SK	27	13	5	9	40	38	44
7	Malmo FF	27	12	4	11	42	36	40
8	AIK	27	10	8	9	43	47	38
9	IFK Goteborg	27	10	8	9	36	46	38
10	GAIS	27	10	7	10	34	27	37
11	Brommapojkarna	27	9	7	11	39	44	34
12	Mjällby AIF	27	6	9	12	30	43	27
13	Kalmar FF	27	6	5	16	23	42	23
14	Degerfors	27	5	5	17	22	46	20
15	Orgryte IS	27	4	7	16	33	60	19
16	Halmstad	27	4	5	18	18	51	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kalmar FF	Sirius
GAIS	0-1 L	1-0 W
Degerfors	2-1 W	2-0 W
Malmo FF	0-1 L	0-1 L
BK Hacken	0-5 L	0-3 L
Elfsborg	0-1 L	2-2 D
Vasteras SK	0-0 D	1-0 W
Hammarby	0-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sirius (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kalmar FF

LDLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
24/10	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	8	1	L
19/10	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
12/10	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
20/09	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-2	0-5	5	1	L
13/09	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
07/09	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
23/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
16/08	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-4	4	1	L

Sirius

LLLWWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	8	6	L
24/10	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	1-2	12	3	L
18/10	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
19/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
14/09	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
05/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
31/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
21/08	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
15/08	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	3-4	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sirius win (43%). Probabilities: Kalmar FF 30%, draw 27%, Sirius 43%.

How many goals are expected in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Kalmar FF 1.16 · Sirius 1.44), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.