Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 08/11, 14:00

Prediction: IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF

Team pages: IFK Goteborg · Malmo FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

IFK Goteborg1.39

Malmo FF1.28

1X2

39% 27% 34%

IFK Goteborg Draw Malmo FF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Goteborg 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDDDL

Malmo FF 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWLDWL

Head-to-head

IFK Goteborg 1–2–3 Malmo FF (6 last)

Malmo FF4-0IFK Goteborg
Malmo FF0-0IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg1-0Malmo FF
Malmo FF2-2IFK Goteborg
Malmo FF2-1IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg0-3Malmo FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Goteborg 1544 · Malmo FF 1526

	IFK Goteborg	Draw	Malmo FF
Our model	38%	28%	33%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Malmo FF: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Goteborg	Malmo FF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.8	2.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.40
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.51
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.82 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:10 +3’	2.38	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:10 +12’	2.40	3.51	2.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Goteborg 1–2–3 Malmo FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	4-0 HT 3-0	IFK Goteborg
24/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	0-0 HT 0-0	IFK Goteborg
25/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	1-0 HT 0-0	Malmo FF
16/03/25 Sweden Cup	Malmo FF	2-2 HT 2-0	IFK Goteborg
28/10/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmo FF	2-1 HT 0-1	IFK Goteborg
13/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Goteborg	0-3 HT 0-2	Malmo FF

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hammarby	27	17	4	6	56	22	55
2	Sirius	26	17	4	5	56	34	55
3	Djurgarden	27	16	4	7	55	25	52
4	BK Hacken	27	13	10	4	48	30	49
5	Elfsborg	27	12	10	5	41	27	46
6	Vasteras SK	27	13	5	9	40	38	44
7	Malmo FF	27	12	4	11	42	36	40
8	AIK	27	10	8	9	43	47	38
9	IFK Goteborg	27	10	8	9	36	46	38
10	GAIS	27	10	7	10	34	27	37
11	Brommapojkarna	27	9	7	11	39	44	34
12	Mjällby AIF	27	6	9	12	30	43	27
13	Kalmar FF	27	6	5	16	23	42	23
14	Degerfors	27	5	5	17	22	46	20
15	Orgryte IS	27	4	7	16	33	60	19
16	Halmstad	26	4	5	17	18	49	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Goteborg	Malmo FF
BK Hacken	0-1 L	0-1 L
Djurgarden	1-1 D	0-3 L
AIK	2-2 D	0-0 D
Vasteras SK	1-0 W	0-2 L
Halmstad	2-1 W	3-0 W
Orgryte IS	1-0 W	4-1 W
Elfsborg	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Goteborg

DWWWWWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
28/10	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
25/10	GAIS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
17/10	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
09/10	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/09	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
12/09	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
07/09	Mjällby AIF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	4-1	10	5	W
30/08	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
23/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	9	5	D

Malmo FF

LWDWLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Hammarby Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
28/10	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
23/10	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/10	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	13	5	L
12/10	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/09	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
13/09	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
07/09	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
31/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/08	Djurgarden Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-3	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Goteborg win (39%). Probabilities: IFK Goteborg 39%, draw 27%, Malmo FF 34%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF?

The model expects 2.67 goals (IFK Goteborg 1.39 · Malmo FF 1.28), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.