Football · USA MLS · 25/10, 01:30

Prediction: DC United vs FC Cincinnati

Team pages: DC United · FC Cincinnati

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

DC United1.65

FC Cincinnati1.85

1X2

34% 24% 42%

DC United Draw FC Cincinnati

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

DC United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLDLWLL

FC Cincinnati 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLWLLW

Head-to-head

DC United 2–1–3 FC Cincinnati (6 last)

FC Cincinnati2-1DC United
FC Cincinnati1-2DC United
DC United0-1FC Cincinnati
DC United2-3FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati0-0DC United
DC United3-0FC Cincinnati

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DC United 1445 · FC Cincinnati 1460

	DC United	Draw	FC Cincinnati
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	34%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Cincinnati: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DC United	FC Cincinnati
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.4 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	1.9 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X4.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.85 ★
X	3.90 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	2.20 → 2.25▲	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.2% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +2’	2.80	3.90	2.20
02:17 +3’	2.80	4.00▲	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +5’	2.84	3.83	2.23
02:15 +7’	2.73▼	3.88▲	2.35▲
02:27 +55’	2.71▼	3.97▲	2.33▼
04:58 +18’	2.85▲	3.97	2.24▼
11:57 +25’	2.85	3.94▼	2.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DC United 2–1–3 FC Cincinnati

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/10/26 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	2-1 HT 1-1	DC United
01/06/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	1-2 HT 1-2	DC United
13/04/25 USA MLS	DC United	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Cincinnati
04/07/24 USA MLS	DC United	2-3 HT 1-2	FC Cincinnati
10/03/24 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	0-0 HT 0-0	DC United
25/06/23 USA MLS	DC United	3-0 HT 3-0	FC Cincinnati

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	64	23	67
2	Inter Miami CF	30	15	10	5	73	51	55
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	49	41	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	52	44	48
5	Charlotte FC	30	13	8	9	53	45	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	61	48	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	58	70	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	10	9	11	62	71	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	39	56	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	46	55	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	46	47	35
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	43	41	34
13	DC United	30	7	12	11	38	53	33
14	Atlanta United	30	8	6	16	37	51	30
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	36	60	25

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DC United	FC Cincinnati
Charlotte FC	1-2 L	3-3 D
Atlanta United	0-0 D	3-1 W
Columbus Crew	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Cincinnati (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DC United

LDWDLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
18/10	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-2	1-4	8	4	L
15/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
11/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
27/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	3-3	10	1	D
20/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
13/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
10/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
23/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-3	9	5	L

FC Cincinnati

DLLDDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	DC United USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
18/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
15/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-2	2-3	12	4	L
11/10	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
27/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
20/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	7	0	D
13/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	12	3	D
10/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	0-5	1	3	L
30/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
23/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DC United vs FC Cincinnati?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Cincinnati win (42%). Probabilities: DC United 34%, draw 24%, FC Cincinnati 42%.

How many goals are expected in DC United vs FC Cincinnati?

The model expects 3.5 goals (DC United 1.65 · FC Cincinnati 1.85), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in DC United vs FC Cincinnati?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.