Football · USA MLS · 25/10, 01:30

Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution

Team pages: Philadelphia Union · New England Revolution

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

Philadelphia Union2.35

New England Revolution1.26

1X2

61% 21% 19%

Philadelphia Union Draw New England Revolution

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWD

New England Revolution 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 4–1–1 New England Revolution (6 last)

New England Revolution2-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union1-0New England Revolution
New England Revolution0-2Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union5-1New England Revolution
New England Revolution0-3Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution0-0Philadelphia Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union 1584 · New England Revolution 1549

	Philadelphia Union	Draw	New England Revolution
Our model	61%	21%	19%
Market	61%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Philadelphia Union: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union	New England Revolution
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 5.9	2.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.53▲	Bet365 1.53
X	4.60 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.70
2	5.25 → 5.00▼	Pinn 5.34 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +5’	1.50	4.60	5.25
15:11 +6’	1.53▲	4.50▼	5.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:27 +8’	1.58	4.44	4.74
02:46 +48’	1.60▲	4.51▲	4.82▲
20:24 +12’	1.58▼	4.55▲	4.93▲
02:13 +2’	1.52▼	4.70▲	5.34▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 4–1–1 New England Revolution

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 USA MLS	New England Revolution	2-1 HT 0-1	Philadelphia Union
20/09/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-0 HT 0-0	New England Revolution
09/03/25 USA MLS	New England Revolution	0-2 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
18/07/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	5-1 HT 3-0	New England Revolution
19/05/24 USA MLS	New England Revolution	0-3 HT 0-1	Philadelphia Union
14/02/24 World Club Friendlies	New England Revolution	0-0	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	64	23	67
2	Inter Miami CF	30	15	10	5	73	51	55
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	49	41	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	52	44	48
5	Charlotte FC	30	13	8	9	53	45	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	61	48	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	58	70	41
8	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	39	56	36
9	FC Cincinnati	29	9	9	11	60	70	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	46	55	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	46	47	35
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	43	41	34
13	DC United	29	7	12	10	37	51	33
14	Atlanta United	30	8	6	16	37	51	30
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	36	60	25

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Philadelphia Union	New England Revolution
Chicago Fire	3-1 W	1-0 W
Real Salt Lake	2-1 W	0-3 L
Orlando City SC	4-2 W	4-2 W
FC Cincinnati	5-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Philadelphia Union

DWWWWWWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
15/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
11/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	6	W
27/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	7	6	W
20/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-3	4-3	4	7	W
14/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
10/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-0	5-0	7	3	W
06/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	8	W
30/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
23/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D

New England Revolution

DWLWWWLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-0	0	2	W
15/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
11/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
27/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	0-3	11	4	L
20/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	4-2	10	4	W
13/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
10/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
30/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (61%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 61%, draw 21%, New England Revolution 19%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?

The model expects 3.61 goals (Philadelphia Union 2.35 · New England Revolution 1.26), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.