Football · USA MLS · 25/10, 02:30

Prediction: Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC

Team pages: Sporting Kansas City · Austin FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Sporting Kansas City1.82

Austin FC1.68

1X2

41% 25% 35%

Sporting Kansas City Draw Austin FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Kansas City 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLDLL

Austin FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDDWDDLLL

Head-to-head

Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Austin FC (6 last)

Austin FC1-2Sporting Kansas City
Austin FC0-2Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1-2Austin FC
Austin FC1-0Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City2-0Austin FC
Austin FC3-2Sporting Kansas City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City 1463 · Austin FC 1449

	Sporting Kansas City	Draw	Austin FC
Our model	41%	24%	35%
Market	41%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Kansas City	Austin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.6	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/0/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.97
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.97 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +22’	2.30	3.75	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:46 +569’	2.17	3.97	2.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City 3–0–3 Austin FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Sporting Kansas City
14/02/26 America Friendlies	Austin FC	0-2	Sporting Kansas City
08/09/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-2 HT 1-1	Austin FC
23/02/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City
30/06/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	2-0 HT 1-0	Austin FC
19/05/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	3-2 HT 2-1	Sporting Kansas City

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	63	31	55
2	St. Louis City SC	30	14	9	7	56	41	51
3	FC Dallas	30	14	9	7	55	47	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	9	8	52	42	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	8	9	41	39	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	48	33	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	39	37	42
8	LA Galaxy	31	10	10	11	43	52	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	6	13	41	41	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	6	14	45	48	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	51	56	34
12	San Diego FC	30	8	10	12	53	56	34
13	Minnesota United	30	8	10	12	47	55	34
14	Austin FC	30	7	10	13	38	56	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	4	20	36	75	22

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Kansas City	Austin FC
Nashville SC	0-4 L	1-4 L
Portland Timbers	3-3 D	2-1 W
Philadelphia Union	3-4 L	1-1 D
Los Angeles FC	3-1 W	1-3 L
FC Dallas	3-4 L	0-0 D
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Austin FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Kansas City

LLLWLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-2	1-3	7	6	L
15/10	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	4	0	L
11/10	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	1	D
02/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
27/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
20/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	3-0	3-4	3	7	L
13/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
06/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-3	3-4	7	1	L
30/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
24/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L

Austin FC

DWDDWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	3	L
15/10	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	1-3	5	0	L
11/10	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	1-4	4	3	L
27/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	3-3	4	1	D
20/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
14/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	7	W
10/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
06/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
23/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Kansas City win (41%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City 41%, draw 25%, Austin FC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Sporting Kansas City 1.82 · Austin FC 1.68), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Austin FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.