Football · USA MLS · 25/10, 01:30

Prediction: Orlando City SC vs New York City FC

Team pages: Orlando City SC · New York City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Orlando City SC1.87

New York City FC1.6

1X2

43% 24% 32%

Orlando City SC Draw New York City FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando City SC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLWDW

New York City FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLWLDLLD

Head-to-head

Orlando City SC 0–1–5 New York City FC (6 last)

New York City FC5-0Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1-2New York City FC
New York City FC2-1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1-1New York City FC
New York City FC4-2Orlando City SC
New York City FC2-0Orlando City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando City SC 1526 · New York City FC 1460

	Orlando City SC	Draw	New York City FC
Our model	44%	24%	32%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orlando City SC (rating 1526 vs 1460).
H2H favours New York City FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando City SC	New York City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.80

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.30 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.93
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:59 +14’	2.15	3.80	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:34 +1’	2.28	3.88	2.74
02:45 +49’	2.30▲	3.93▲	2.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City SC 0–1–5 New York City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 USA MLS	New York City FC	5-0 HT 3-0	Orlando City SC
17/07/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-2 HT 1-0	New York City FC
09/03/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC
21/07/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-1 HT 0-0	New York City FC
29/06/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	4-2 HT 3-0	Orlando City SC
21/09/23 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Orlando City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	64	23	67
2	Inter Miami CF	30	15	10	5	73	51	55
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	49	41	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	52	44	48
5	Charlotte FC	30	13	8	9	53	45	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	61	48	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	58	70	41
8	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	39	56	36
9	FC Cincinnati	29	9	9	11	60	70	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	46	55	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	46	47	35
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	43	41	34
13	DC United	29	7	12	10	37	51	33
14	Atlanta United	30	8	6	16	37	51	30
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	36	60	25

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orlando City SC	New York City FC
Toronto FC	3-3 D	1-1 D
New England Revolution	2-4 L	1-2 L
Atlanta United	3-2 W	2-2 D
Real Salt Lake	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: New York City FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orlando City SC

WDWWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	DC United USA MLS	2-1	4-1	1	4	W
15/10	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	5	4	D
11/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
27/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	2-4	7	6	L
20/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	2-4	3	4	L
13/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
10/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	3-2	5	3	W
06/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
30/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	3-3	1	4	D
23/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	5	4	W

New York City FC

DDDLWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
15/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
10/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
19/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
13/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
10/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	12	2	L
05/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando City SC vs New York City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orlando City SC win (43%). Probabilities: Orlando City SC 43%, draw 24%, New York City FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs New York City FC?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Orlando City SC 1.87 · New York City FC 1.6), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs New York City FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.