Prediction: FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
Team pages: FC Dallas · San Jose Earthquakes
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.38Total
FC Dallas2.09
San Jose Earthquakes1.29
1X2
FC Dallas
Draw
San Jose Earthquakes
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Dallas
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
San Jose Earthquakes
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Dallas
2–2–2
San Jose Earthquakes
(6 last)
- San Jose Earthquakes2-3FC Dallas
- San Jose Earthquakes2-2FC Dallas
- FC Dallas2-4San Jose Earthquakes
- San Jose Earthquakes3-2FC Dallas
- FC Dallas2-1San Jose Earthquakes
- FC Dallas1-1San Jose Earthquakes
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Dallas 1546 · San Jose Earthquakes 1509
| FC Dallas | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Dallas | San Jose Earthquakes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.7 | 2.9 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dallas 2–2–2 San Jose Earthquakes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 USA MLS | San Jose Earthquakes | 2-3 HT 1-1 | FC Dallas |
| 17/07/25 USA MLS | San Jose Earthquakes | 2-2 HT 1-1 | FC Dallas |
| 26/06/25 USA MLS | FC Dallas | 2-4 HT 1-0 | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 03/10/24 USA MLS | San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2 HT 1-1 | FC Dallas |
| 25/02/24 USA MLS | FC Dallas | 2-1 HT 1-1 | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 08/10/23 USA MLS | FC Dallas | 1-1 HT 0-1 | San Jose Earthquakes |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 31 | 55 |
| 2 | St. Louis City SC | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 56 | 41 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 47 | 51 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 42 | 48 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 47 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 48 | 33 | 46 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 39 | 37 | 42 |
| 8 | LA Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 52 | 40 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 41 | 41 | 39 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 45 | 48 | 36 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 51 | 56 | 34 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 56 | 34 |
| 13 | Minnesota United | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 47 | 55 | 34 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 38 | 56 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 36 | 75 | 22 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Dallas | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Los Angeles FC | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Austin FC | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Portland Timbers | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Minnesota United | 2-1 W | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Dallas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 15/10 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 27/09 | Los Angeles FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Austin FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 10/09 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
3-2 | 4-3 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 31/08 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
1-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
0-4 | 0-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
San Jose Earthquakes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 15/10 | Real Salt Lake USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 11/10 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 27/09 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
3-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Los Angeles FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-2 | 18 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 10/09 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
3-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 06/09 | Austin FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
1-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Dallas win (55%). Probabilities: FC Dallas 55%, draw 23%, San Jose Earthquakes 22%.
How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The model expects 3.38 goals (FC Dallas 2.09 · San Jose Earthquakes 1.29), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.