Football · USA MLS · 25/10, 01:30

Prediction: Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire

Team pages: Atlanta United · Chicago Fire

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Atlanta United1.49

Chicago Fire1.58

1X2

35% 25% 39%

Atlanta United Draw Chicago Fire

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLDWDLWL

Chicago Fire 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLLWWWLL

Head-to-head

Atlanta United 1–3–2 Chicago Fire (6 last)

Chicago Fire1-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire2-1Atlanta United
Chicago Fire0-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United3-0Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire3-3Atlanta United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlanta United 1469 · Chicago Fire 1494

	Atlanta United	Draw	Chicago Fire
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	36%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chicago Fire: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United	Chicago Fire
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.5	1.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.80

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.69 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.81
2	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.41

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:08 +4’	2.60	3.80	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:27 +8’	2.36	3.72	2.71
02:46 +48’	2.38▲	3.77▲	2.74▲
13:43 +85’	2.41▲	3.79▲	2.69▼
02:11 +4’	2.55▲	3.79	2.54▼
18:55 +31’	2.69▲	3.81▲	2.41▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United 1–3–2 Chicago Fire

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-0 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
17/07/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-2 HT 0-1	Chicago Fire
10/05/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	2-1 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
28/04/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-0 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
31/03/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	3-0 HT 1-0	Chicago Fire
21/05/23 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	3-3 HT 1-1	Atlanta United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	64	23	67
2	Inter Miami CF	30	15	10	5	73	51	55
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	49	41	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	52	44	48
5	Charlotte FC	30	13	8	9	53	45	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	61	48	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	58	70	41
8	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	39	56	36
9	FC Cincinnati	29	9	9	11	60	70	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	46	55	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	46	47	35
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	43	41	34
13	DC United	29	7	12	10	37	51	33
14	Atlanta United	30	8	6	16	37	51	30
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	36	60	25

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlanta United	Chicago Fire
Inter Miami CF	1-3 L	1-1 D
New York City FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Charlotte FC	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlanta United

WLDLDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
15/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
11/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-0	1-3	5	5	L
27/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/09	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
10/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
06/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
30/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	11	2	L
24/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	2	3	W

Chicago Fire

DDDLLWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
15/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	1-3	2	6	L
10/10	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
07/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
27/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
20/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
13/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
10/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-2	4-4	3	4	D
29/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-2	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chicago Fire win (39%). Probabilities: Atlanta United 35%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire 39%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Atlanta United 1.49 · Chicago Fire 1.58), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.