Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 11/10, 15:30

Prediction: FC Kuressaare vs FC Flora Tallinn

Team pages: FC Kuressaare · FC Flora Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

FC Kuressaare1.14

FC Flora Tallinn2.2

1X2

18% 21% 61%

FC Kuressaare Draw FC Flora Tallinn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kuressaare 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLDWLLD

FC Flora Tallinn 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWDWW

Head-to-head

FC Kuressaare 1–5 FC Flora Tallinn (6 last)

FC Flora Tallinn2-3FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare0-3FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn2-1FC Kuressaare
FC Flora Tallinn2-0FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare1-2FC Flora Tallinn
FC Kuressaare1-3FC Flora Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kuressaare 1497 · FC Flora Tallinn 1531

	FC Kuressaare	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn
Our model	18%	22%	61%
Market	18%	21%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kuressaare	FC Flora Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	3.6 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.20

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.02

2 (-1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:52 +5’	5.00	4.20	1.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kuressaare 1–0–5 FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-3 HT 1-3	FC Kuressaare
02/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-3 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn
07/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
01/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
24/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Flora Tallinn
27/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-3 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	22	6	1	81	21	72
2	FC Flora Tallinn	29	18	1	10	59	39	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	29	15	6	8	48	36	51
4	JK Nomme Kalju	29	15	5	9	52	27	50
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	29	14	2	13	37	47	44
6	Harju JK Laagri	29	11	2	16	40	47	35
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	29	10	4	15	39	57	34
8	FC Kuressaare	29	8	5	16	31	49	29
9	JK Nomme United	29	9	1	19	47	68	28
10	JK Trans Narva	29	5	4	20	22	65	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kuressaare	FC Flora Tallinn
Harju JK Laagri	0-0 D	1-0 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	1-3 L	3-2 W
JK Trans Narva	3-1 W	2-2 D
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 D	3-2 W
Paide Linnameeskond	0-1 L	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Kuressaare

DLWWLDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
13/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	6	1	L
09/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
05/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
16/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
07/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-2	7	5	W
02/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
19/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

FC Flora Tallinn

WLWLLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	3-2	7	0	W
12/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-2	9	1	W
08/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-2	2-2	4	6	D
05/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
02/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
30/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	8	9	L
23/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
16/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	2-3	13	7	L
02/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kuressaare vs FC Flora Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Flora Tallinn win (61%). Probabilities: FC Kuressaare 18%, draw 21%, FC Flora Tallinn 61%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kuressaare vs FC Flora Tallinn?

The model expects 3.35 goals (FC Kuressaare 1.14 · FC Flora Tallinn 2.2), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kuressaare vs FC Flora Tallinn?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.