Football · Brazil Serie A · 24/10, 21:30

Prediction: Vitoria vs Athletico Paranaense

Team pages: Vitoria · Athletico Paranaense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Vitoria1.47

Athletico Paranaense1.42

1X2

37% 28% 35%

Vitoria Draw Athletico Paranaense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Vitoria 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWDLWL

Athletico Paranaense 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLDWDWL

Head-to-head

Vitoria 2–4 Athletico Paranaense (6 last)

Vitoria4-0Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense2-0Vitoria
Athletico Paranaense3-1Vitoria
Athletico Paranaense1-2Vitoria
Vitoria0-1Athletico Paranaense
Vitoria1-2Athletico Paranaense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vitoria 1432 · Athletico Paranaense 1530

	Vitoria	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
Our model	37%	27%	35%
Market	36%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletico Paranaense (rating 1432 vs 1530).
H2H favours Athletico Paranaense: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vitoria	Athletico Paranaense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	2.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.05

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +9’	2.55	3.20	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vitoria 2–0–4 Athletico Paranaense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/26 Copa do Brasil	Vitoria	4-0 HT 2-0	Athletico Paranaense
04/08/26 Copa do Brasil	Athletico Paranaense	2-0 HT 1-0	Vitoria
26/04/26 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	3-1 HT 1-1	Vitoria
02/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-2 HT 1-1	Vitoria
30/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	0-1 HT 0-0	Athletico Paranaense
17/11/18 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	1-2 HT 0-1	Athletico Paranaense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
2	Flamengo	30	19	7	4	58	25	64
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Fluminense	30	14	9	7	48	37	51
5	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
6	EC Bahia	30	13	10	7	44	36	49
7	Cruzeiro	30	14	6	10	46	44	48
8	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
9	Santos	30	11	9	10	46	45	42
10	Bragantino	30	11	7	12	38	35	40
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33	44	36
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31	38	32
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	30	7	10	13	32	40	31
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33	48	25
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vitoria	Athletico Paranaense
Chapecoense	4-0 W	4-1 W
Cruzeiro	1-3 L	1-3 L
Atletico Mineiro	1-2 L	2-2 D
EC Bahia	0-2 L	2-1 W
Botafogo	1-0 W	3-2 W
Palmeiras	0-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Athletico Paranaense (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vitoria

LLWLLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	2	8	L
08/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
20/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-3	8	3	L
13/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-2	5	10	D
08/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
29/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
23/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
16/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
10/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
30/07	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	6	7	L

Athletico Paranaense

WDWDLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	16	5	L
13/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	3-0	4-1	7	3	W
09/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
21/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	3	8	D
06/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
30/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	8	4	D
25/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
15/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
09/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vitoria vs Athletico Paranaense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vitoria win (37%). Probabilities: Vitoria 37%, draw 28%, Athletico Paranaense 35%.

How many goals are expected in Vitoria vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Vitoria 1.47 · Athletico Paranaense 1.42), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.