Football · Brazil Serie A · 29/10, 23:30

Prediction: Coritiba vs Vitoria

Team pages: Coritiba · Vitoria

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Coritiba1.57

Vitoria1.31

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Coritiba Draw Vitoria

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Coritiba 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDLLDL

Vitoria 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDLWLD

Head-to-head

Coritiba 2–2–2 Vitoria (6 last)

Vitoria4-1Coritiba
Vitoria0-0Coritiba
Coritiba1-0Vitoria
Vitoria1-2Coritiba
Coritiba1-1Vitoria
Coritiba0-1Vitoria

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Coritiba 1461 · Vitoria 1453

	Coritiba	Draw	Vitoria
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Coritiba	Vitoria
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.25

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +8’	2.25	3.25	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Coritiba 2–2–2 Vitoria

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Vitoria	4-1 HT 2-1	Coritiba
23/09/21 Brazil Serie B	Vitoria	0-0 HT 0-0	Coritiba
23/06/21 Brazil Serie B	Coritiba	1-0 HT 1-0	Vitoria
30/11/19 Brazil Serie B	Vitoria	1-2 HT 1-0	Coritiba
28/08/19 Brazil Serie B	Coritiba	1-1 HT 1-0	Vitoria
29/08/17 Brazil Serie A	Coritiba	0-1 HT 0-0	Vitoria

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54	22	66
3	Athletico Paranaense	31	15	8	8	49	37	53
4	Cruzeiro	31	15	6	10	50	46	51
5	Fluminense	31	14	9	8	49	39	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	31	13	10	8	44	39	49
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48	46	45
9	Sao Paulo	31	12	6	13	36	35	42
10	Bragantino	31	11	8	12	39	36	41
11	Botafogo	31	10	9	12	44	48	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vitoria	31	10	7	14	34	45	37
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36	44	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	36	43	35
16	Corinthians	31	8	9	14	32	39	33
17	Internacional	31	7	11	13	33	40	32
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	31	5	11	15	34	49	26
20	Chapecoense	30	3	9	18	30	62	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Coritiba	Vitoria
Atletico Mineiro	0-1 L	1-2 L
Botafogo	1-1 D	1-0 W
Mirassol	1-2 L	2-2 D
Corinthians	2-1 W	1-1 D
Sao Paulo	1-1 D	1-2 L
Chapecoense	2-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vitoria (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Coritiba

WDWWLDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
12/10	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	8	7	D
09/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-4	2	1	L
20/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
12/09	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	8	8	D
06/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
01/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-2	4	4	W
24/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
09/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	2	W

Vitoria

LWLLWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	1	1	D
11/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	2	8	L
08/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
20/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-3	8	3	L
13/09	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-2	5	10	D
08/09	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
29/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
23/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
16/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
10/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Coritiba vs Vitoria?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Coritiba win (42%). Probabilities: Coritiba 42%, draw 28%, Vitoria 30%.

How many goals are expected in Coritiba vs Vitoria?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Coritiba 1.57 · Vitoria 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Vitoria?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.