Football · Brazil Serie A · 31/10, 00:00

Prediction: Corinthians vs Mirassol

Team pages: Corinthians · Mirassol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Corinthians1.76

Mirassol0.84

1X2

58% 25% 17%

Corinthians Draw Mirassol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Corinthians 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDL

Mirassol 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWDWDLWD

Head-to-head

Corinthians 4–2 Mirassol (6 last)

Mirassol2-1Corinthians
Corinthians3-0Mirassol
Mirassol2-1Corinthians
Corinthians2-0Mirassol
Corinthians3-0Mirassol
Corinthians2-1Mirassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corinthians 1384 · Mirassol 1509

	Corinthians	Draw	Mirassol
Our model	58%	25%	17%
Market	58%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mirassol (rating 1384 vs 1509).
H2H favours Corinthians: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corinthians	Mirassol
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.8	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.75

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.60▲	Pinn 1.68 ★
X	3.80 → 3.75▼	Bet365 3.75
2	5.75 → 5.50▼	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:49 +3’	1.57	3.80	5.75
03:26 +2’	1.60▲	3.75▼	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:45 +13’	1.79	3.52	4.57
00:15 +17’	1.75▼	3.59▲	4.78▲
00:46 +48’	1.76▲	3.63▲	4.85▲
01:37 +57’	1.75▼	3.65▲	4.90▲
03:16 +13’	1.71▼	3.70▲	5.10▲
04:17 +2’	1.67▼	3.76▲	5.32▲
10:22 +2’	1.64▼	3.84▲	5.56▲
15:47 +61’	1.68▲	3.75▼	5.29▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Corinthians 4–0–2 Mirassol

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	2-1 HT 2-0	Corinthians
05/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	3-0 HT 1-0	Mirassol
10/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	2-1 HT 0-1	Corinthians
02/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Corinthians	2-0 HT 1-0	Mirassol
19/02/23 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Corinthians	3-0 HT 2-0	Mirassol
11/02/22 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Corinthians	2-1 HT 2-1	Mirassol

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	56	22	69
2	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	51	46	54
4	Athletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	50	38	54
5	Fluminense	32	14	9	9	50	41	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	32	13	11	8	45	40	50
8	Santos	32	12	10	10	49	47	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37	36	43
10	Bragantino	32	11	8	13	39	38	41
11	Botafogo	32	10	9	13	44	51	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vasco da Gama	31	10	8	13	39	45	38
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	35	46	38
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37	45	37
16	Internacional	32	8	11	13	36	40	35
17	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	34	42	33
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	32	5	11	16	34	50	26
20	Chapecoense	31	4	9	18	32	63	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corinthians	Mirassol
Vitoria	1-1 D	2-2 D
Palmeiras	1-4 L	1-1 D
Internacional	1-2 L	2-0 W
Flamengo	1-2 L	0-2 L
Santos	0-1 L	1-1 D
Coritiba	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mirassol (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Corinthians

LLLLLLLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-3	3	4	L
20/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
11/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-4	3	7	L
08/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	12	9	L
20/09	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-3	11	8	L
13/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	0	6	L
07/09	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
30/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	8	6	L
24/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	14	4	L
17/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	3	5	L

Mirassol

DDLWDWDLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
17/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	5	9	W
12/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
08/10	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
19/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
13/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	12	10	D
06/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
03/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
30/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
23/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corinthians vs Mirassol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Corinthians win (58%). Probabilities: Corinthians 58%, draw 25%, Mirassol 17%.

How many goals are expected in Corinthians vs Mirassol?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Corinthians 1.76 · Mirassol 0.84), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Mirassol?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.