Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/10, 01:30

Prediction: Gremio vs Athletico Paranaense

Team pages: Gremio · Athletico Paranaense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Gremio1.4

Athletico Paranaense1.24

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Gremio Draw Athletico Paranaense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDDDL

Athletico Paranaense 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLDWDWLD

Head-to-head

Gremio 3–1–2 Athletico Paranaense (6 last)

Athletico Paranaense0-0Gremio
Athletico Paranaense0-2Gremio
Gremio2-0Athletico Paranaense
Gremio1-2Athletico Paranaense
Athletico Paranaense1-2Gremio
Athletico Paranaense4-2Gremio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio 1455 · Athletico Paranaense 1513

	Gremio	Draw	Athletico Paranaense
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	39%	29%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Athletico Paranaense (rating 1455 vs 1513).
H2H favours Gremio: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio	Athletico Paranaense
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	2.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.25

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +11’	2.35	3.25	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio 3–1–2 Athletico Paranaense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	0-0 HT 0-0	Gremio
04/08/24 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	0-2 HT 0-2	Gremio
18/04/24 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	2-0 HT 1-0	Athletico Paranaense
19/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	1-2 HT 1-1	Athletico Paranaense
27/05/23 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	1-2 HT 1-1	Gremio
26/09/21 Brazil Serie A	Athletico Paranaense	4-2 HT 2-0	Gremio

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	56	22	69
2	Flamengo	31	20	7	4	61	25	67
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	51	46	54
4	Athletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	50	38	54
5	Fluminense	32	14	9	9	50	41	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	31	14	8	9	42	35	50
7	EC Bahia	32	13	11	8	45	40	50
8	Santos	32	12	10	10	49	47	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37	36	43
10	Bragantino	32	11	8	13	39	38	41
11	Botafogo	32	10	9	13	44	51	39
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	38	49	39
13	Vasco da Gama	31	10	8	13	39	45	38
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	35	46	38
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37	45	37
16	Internacional	32	8	11	13	36	40	35
17	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	34	42	33
18	Gremio	31	7	10	14	34	44	31
19	Remo	32	5	11	16	34	50	26
20	Chapecoense	31	4	9	18	32	63	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio	Athletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro	2-4 L	1-3 L
Palmeiras	0-0 D	0-2 L
Botafogo	2-3 L	3-2 W
Vitoria	0-1 L	1-1 D
Chapecoense	3-1 W	4-1 W
Bragantino	0-1 L	1-1 D
Atletico Mineiro	0-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Athletico Paranaense (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio

LLWLLLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-1	2-4	8	6	L
11/10	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
08/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
20/09	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	10	D
17/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
12/09	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
08/09	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
30/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-1	5	4	W
23/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
16/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	6	L

Athletico Paranaense

DWDLDWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	16	5	L
13/10	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	3-0	4-1	7	3	W
09/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
21/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	3	8	D
06/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
30/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-3	8	4	D
25/08	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
15/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio vs Athletico Paranaense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio win (39%). Probabilities: Gremio 39%, draw 29%, Athletico Paranaense 32%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Gremio 1.4 · Athletico Paranaense 1.24), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio vs Athletico Paranaense?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.