Football · Brazil Serie A · 03/11, 00:00

Prediction: Bragantino vs Santos

Team pages: Bragantino · Santos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Bragantino1.59

Santos1.06

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Bragantino Draw Santos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bragantino 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLDWDL

Santos 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDLWD

Head-to-head

Bragantino 1–2–3 Santos (6 last)

Santos2-0Bragantino
Santos0-0Bragantino
Bragantino2-2Santos
Santos1-2Bragantino
Santos2-0Bragantino
Santos3-1Bragantino

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bragantino 1468 · Santos 1581

	Bragantino	Draw	Santos
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos (rating 1468 vs 1581).
H2H favours Santos: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bragantino	Santos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.4	2.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	5.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.06 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.76
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +3’	1.90	3.50	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:43 +1’	2.06	3.76	3.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bragantino 1–2–3 Santos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Brazil Serie A	Santos	2-0 HT 1-0	Bragantino
25/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Santos	0-0 HT 0-0	Bragantino
28/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	2-2 HT 1-0	Santos
28/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-2 HT 0-0	Bragantino
03/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Santos	2-0 HT 1-0	Bragantino
28/03/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Santos	3-1 HT 2-0	Bragantino

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flamengo	32	21	7	4	64	27	70
2	Palmeiras	32	20	9	3	56	22	69
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	51	46	54
4	Athletico Paranaense	32	15	9	8	50	38	54
5	Fluminense	32	14	9	9	50	41	51
6	Atletico Mineiro	32	14	8	10	44	38	50
7	EC Bahia	32	13	11	8	45	40	50
8	Santos	32	12	10	10	49	47	46
9	Sao Paulo	32	12	7	13	37	36	43
10	Bragantino	32	11	8	13	39	38	41
11	Botafogo	32	10	9	13	44	51	39
12	Coritiba	32	10	9	13	38	50	39
13	Vasco da Gama	31	10	8	13	39	45	38
14	Vitoria	32	10	8	14	35	46	38
15	Mirassol	32	9	10	13	37	45	37
16	Internacional	32	8	11	13	36	40	35
17	Gremio	32	8	10	14	35	44	34
18	Corinthians	32	8	9	15	34	42	33
19	Remo	32	5	11	16	34	50	26
20	Chapecoense	31	4	9	18	32	63	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bragantino	Santos
Remo	1-1 D	2-1 W
Cruzeiro	4-2 W	2-1 W
Mirassol	1-1 D	1-1 D
Atletico Mineiro	0-1 L	1-2 L
Flamengo	1-2 L	2-2 D
EC Bahia	2-3 L	1-1 D
Sao Paulo	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Santos (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bragantino

WLLDLLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	9	6	L
19/10	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/10	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	3-1	4-2	7	4	W
08/10	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	11	1	D
03/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	10	2	L
20/09	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
13/09	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
05/09	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	2-2	2-3	10	3	L
30/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
23/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	8	5	W

Santos

DWWWWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	14	5	D
18/10	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
11/10	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
09/10	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	2-2	5	11	D
03/10	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
19/09	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
13/09	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	13	5	W
06/09	Internacional Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-2	2	9	W
30/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
23/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bragantino vs Santos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bragantino win (49%). Probabilities: Bragantino 49%, draw 27%, Santos 24%.

How many goals are expected in Bragantino vs Santos?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Bragantino 1.59 · Santos 1.06), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bragantino vs Santos?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.