Football · Brazil Serie B · 26/09, 00:30

Prediction: Gremio Novorizontino vs Sao Bernardo SP

Team pages: Gremio Novorizontino · Sao Bernardo SP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Gremio Novorizontino1.68

Sao Bernardo SP0.96

1X2

53% 27% 20%

Gremio Novorizontino Draw Sao Bernardo SP

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio Novorizontino 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWWWDL

Sao Bernardo SP 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLWLWW

Head-to-head

Gremio Novorizontino 3–2–0 Sao Bernardo SP (5 last)

Sao Bernardo SP1-1Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino1-0Sao Bernardo SP
Gremio Novorizontino2-1Sao Bernardo SP
Sao Bernardo SP1-1Gremio Novorizontino
Gremio Novorizontino3-2Sao Bernardo SP

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gremio Novorizontino (rating 1558 vs 1506).
H2H favours Gremio Novorizontino: 3-2-0.
High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio Novorizontino	Sao Bernardo SP
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 8.3	2.5 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.81

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:38

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.56 → 1.54▼	Pinn 1.54
X	3.98 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.10
2	5.86 → 5.89▲	Pinn 5.89

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +96’	1.56	3.98	5.86
14:15 +212’	1.56▲	3.97▼	5.87▲
09:11 +27’	1.54▼	4.10▲	5.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio Novorizontino 3–2–0 Sao Bernardo SP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Brazil Serie B	Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 HT 1-1	Gremio Novorizontino
10/04/26 Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste	Gremio Novorizontino	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Bernardo SP
07/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Gremio Novorizontino	2-1 HT 1-1	Sao Bernardo SP
06/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Sao Bernardo SP	1-1 HT 0-1	Gremio Novorizontino
04/02/17 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Gremio Novorizontino	3-2 HT 2-1	Sao Bernardo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vila Nova	29	15	6	8	41	31	51
2	Gremio Novorizontino	29	14	8	7	49	27	50
3	EC Juventude	29	14	8	7	31	19	50
4	Fortaleza	28	13	9	6	31	23	48
5	Criciuma	28	13	8	7	28	25	47
6	Atletico GO	29	12	10	7	36	27	46
7	CRB	28	13	6	9	42	40	45
8	Operario PR	28	12	8	8	39	36	44
9	Sport Recife	29	11	11	7	39	29	44
10	Sao Bernardo SP	29	11	8	10	40	31	41
11	Athletic Club MG	29	10	11	8	34	31	41
12	Cuiaba	28	9	13	6	27	22	40
13	Goias	28	11	6	11	28	34	39
14	Nautico	28	10	8	10	35	33	38
15	Ceara	29	9	8	12	31	37	35
16	Botafogo SP	29	8	8	13	32	36	32
17	Avai	28	8	6	14	29	36	30
18	Londrina	28	7	7	14	38	39	28
19	America MG	29	4	5	20	21	49	17
20	Ponte Preta	28	2	4	22	16	62	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio Novorizontino	Sao Bernardo SP
Ceara	1-2 L	3-4 L
Botafogo SP	3-1 W	0-1 L
America MG	3-0 W	2-0 W
Londrina	4-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio Novorizontino (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio Novorizontino

WLDWWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-2	9	8	L
13/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
05/09	Avai Brazil Serie B	3-1	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
25/08	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
21/08	America MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
16/08	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
09/08	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
26/07	Londrina Brazil Serie B	3-1	4-1	10	3	W

Sao Bernardo SP

LWLDDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
15/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
11/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
06/09	Ponte Preta Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
29/08	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	1	L
23/08	Nautico Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
20/08	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	12	3	L
08/08	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
26/07	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	3-4	10	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio Novorizontino vs Sao Bernardo SP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio Novorizontino win (53%). Probabilities: Gremio Novorizontino 53%, draw 27%, Sao Bernardo SP 20%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio Novorizontino vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Gremio Novorizontino 1.68 · Sao Bernardo SP 0.96), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio Novorizontino vs Sao Bernardo SP?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.