Football · South Korea K3 League · 25/07, 11:00

Prediction: Pocheon Citizen FC vs Daejeon Korail

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Pocheon Citizen FC1.26

Daejeon Korail1

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Pocheon Citizen FC Draw Daejeon Korail

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Pocheon Citizen FC 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWWDD

Daejeon Korail 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDWWLL

Head-to-head

Pocheon Citizen FC 2–4 Daejeon Korail (6 last)

Pocheon Citizen FC2-0Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail0-1Pocheon Citizen FC
Daejeon Korail2-0Pocheon Citizen FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pocheon Citizen FC 1583 · Daejeon Korail 1536

	Pocheon Citizen FC	Draw	Daejeon Korail
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pocheon Citizen FC (rating 1583 vs 1536).
H2H favours Daejeon Korail: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pocheon Citizen FC	Daejeon Korail
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.9	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.8	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.5	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.16
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.31 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
09:06 +2’	2.05	3.20	3.10
11:08 +3’	2.10▲	3.20	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:09	2.18	3.16	3.31
12:12	2.16▼	3.20▲	3.31

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pocheon Citizen FC 2–0–4 Daejeon Korail

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 South Korea Cup	Pocheon Citizen FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Daejeon Korail
04/04/26 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	0-1 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
26/10/25 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	2-0 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
15/06/25 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	2-6 HT 1-2	Daejeon Korail
31/08/24 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Daejeon Korail
03/05/24 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	4-0 HT 3-0	Pocheon Citizen FC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	17	12	4	1	24	14	40
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	17	10	5	2	30	15	35
3	Daejeon Korail	17	9	4	4	27	12	31
4	Busan Trans Corp	17	8	6	3	26	13	30
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	18	7	4	7	29	26	25
6	Changwon City	17	6	7	4	18	16	25
7	Yeoju	17	5	6	6	20	22	21
8	Gyeongju HNP	17	4	7	6	23	24	19
9	Ulsan Citizen FC	17	5	4	8	17	19	19
10	Gangneung City	17	5	4	8	15	26	19
11	Chuncheon FC	17	4	5	8	30	29	17
12	Yangpyeong FC	17	3	7	7	20	29	16
13	Mokpo City	17	2	9	6	14	25	15
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	18	1	6	11	19	42	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pocheon Citizen FC	Daejeon Korail
Dangjin Citizen FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Gyeongju HNP	3-1 W	0-1 L
Gangneung City	3-1 W	3-0 W
Busan Trans Corp	1-1 D	1-0 W
Ulsan Citizen FC	1-0 W	2-2 D
Jeonbuk Motors II	5-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Daejeon Korail (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Pocheon Citizen FC

WDWDWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Seongnam FC South Korea Cup	1-0	1-1	12	3	D
11/07	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
04/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea Cup	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
28/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
21/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3/K4 Championship	2-1	5-2	5	5	W
06/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	14	3	D
30/05	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
27/05	Changwon City South Korea K3/K4 Championship	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
23/05	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	3-0	5-1	5	5	W

Daejeon Korail

WWWDLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
04/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea Cup	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
28/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
20/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
06/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	2-2	3-3	3	6	D
31/05	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
27/05	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3/K4 Championship	1-2	2-2	4	3	D
23/05	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-0	3	1	W
16/05	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/05	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Daejeon Korail?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pocheon Citizen FC win (42%). Probabilities: Pocheon Citizen FC 42%, draw 29%, Daejeon Korail 29%.

How many goals are expected in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Daejeon Korail?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Pocheon Citizen FC 1.26 · Daejeon Korail 1), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Daejeon Korail?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.