Football · South Korea K3 League · 26/07, 11:00
Prediction: Yangpyeong FC vs Busan Trans Corp
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Yangpyeong FC1.12
Busan Trans Corp1.19
1X2
Yangpyeong FC
Draw
Busan Trans Corp
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Yangpyeong FC
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Busan Trans Corp
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Yangpyeong FC
3–2–1
Busan Trans Corp
(6 last)
- Busan Trans Corp0-0Yangpyeong FC
- Yangpyeong FC2-0Busan Trans Corp
- Busan Trans Corp0-0Yangpyeong FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yangpyeong FC 1476 · Busan Trans Corp 1534
| Yangpyeong FC | Draw | Busan Trans Corp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Market | 34% | 29% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Busan Trans Corp (rating 1476 vs 1534).
- H2H favours Yangpyeong FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Yangpyeong FC | Busan Trans Corp | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.3 | 2.2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yangpyeong FC 3–2–1 Busan Trans Corp
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 South Korea K3 League | Busan Trans Corp | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Yangpyeong FC |
| 30/08/25 South Korea K3 League | Yangpyeong FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Busan Trans Corp |
| 02/05/25 South Korea K3 League | Busan Trans Corp | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Yangpyeong FC |
| 22/09/24 South Korea K3 League | Yangpyeong FC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Busan Trans Corp |
| 26/05/24 South Korea K3 League | Busan Trans Corp | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Yangpyeong FC |
| 02/09/23 South Korea K3 League | Busan Trans Corp | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Yangpyeong FC |
Standings · South Korea K3 League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung City AC | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Pocheon Citizen FC | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 12 | 31 |
| 4 | Busan Trans Corp | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 30 |
| 5 | Dangjin Citizen FC | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 26 | 25 |
| 6 | Changwon City | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 25 |
| 7 | Yeoju | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 21 |
| 8 | Gyeongju HNP | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 19 |
| 9 | Ulsan Citizen FC | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 19 | 19 |
| 10 | Gangneung City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 26 | 19 |
| 11 | Chuncheon FC | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 17 |
| 12 | Yangpyeong FC | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 29 | 16 |
| 13 | Mokpo City | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 15 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Yangpyeong FC | Busan Trans Corp |
|---|---|---|
| Jeonbuk Motors II | 5-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Chuncheon FC | 3-3 D | 2-3 L |
| Yeoju | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Yangpyeong FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yangpyeong FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Hwaseong FC South Korea Cup |
1-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Ulsan Nam Gu FC South Korea Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 3 | D |
| 27/06 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 20/06 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 07/06 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | Changwon City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Busan Trans Corp
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Suwon Bluewings South Korea Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 11/07 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 05/07 | Gijang United South Korea Cup |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Yeoju South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Gijang United South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yangpyeong FC vs Busan Trans Corp?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Busan Trans Corp win (37%). Probabilities: Yangpyeong FC 33%, draw 30%, Busan Trans Corp 37%.
How many goals are expected in Yangpyeong FC vs Busan Trans Corp?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Yangpyeong FC 1.12 · Busan Trans Corp 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Yangpyeong FC vs Busan Trans Corp?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.