Football · South Korea K3 League · 25/07, 12:00
Prediction: Dangjin Citizen FC vs Mokpo City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Dangjin Citizen FC1.67
Mokpo City1.09
1X2
Dangjin Citizen FC
Draw
Mokpo City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dangjin Citizen FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Mokpo City
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dangjin Citizen FC
2–1
Mokpo City
(3 last)
- Mokpo City1-3Dangjin Citizen FC
- Dangjin Citizen FC3-1Mokpo City
- Mokpo City1-0Dangjin Citizen FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dangjin Citizen FC 1524 · Mokpo City 1442
| Dangjin Citizen FC | Draw | Mokpo City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dangjin Citizen FC (rating 1524 vs 1442).
- H2H favours Dangjin Citizen FC: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dangjin Citizen FC | Mokpo City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.8 | 1.3 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dangjin Citizen FC 2–0–1 Mokpo City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 South Korea K3 League | Mokpo City | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Dangjin Citizen FC |
| 04/09/22 South Korea K3 League | Dangjin Citizen FC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Mokpo City |
| 07/05/22 South Korea K3 League | Mokpo City | 1-0 | Dangjin Citizen FC |
Standings · South Korea K3 League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung City AC | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Pocheon Citizen FC | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 12 | 31 |
| 4 | Busan Trans Corp | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 30 |
| 5 | Dangjin Citizen FC | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 26 | 25 |
| 6 | Changwon City | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 25 |
| 7 | Yeoju | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 21 |
| 8 | Gyeongju HNP | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 19 |
| 9 | Ulsan Citizen FC | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 19 | 19 |
| 10 | Gangneung City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 26 | 19 |
| 11 | Chuncheon FC | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 17 |
| 12 | Yangpyeong FC | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 29 | 16 |
| 13 | Mokpo City | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 15 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dangjin Citizen FC | Mokpo City |
|---|---|---|
| Gangneung City | 5-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Ulsan Citizen FC | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Changwon City | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Yangpyeong FC | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Siheung City AC | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Dangjin Citizen FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dangjin Citizen FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 15/07 | Yongin FC South Korea Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Haman South Korea Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 15 | 6 | D |
| 28/06 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
3-1 | 5-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Changwon City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 27/05 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Mokpo City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Cheonan City South Korea Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Anseong Citizen FC South Korea Cup |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Changwon City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 07/06 | Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 31/05 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Mokpo City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dangjin Citizen FC win (50%). Probabilities: Dangjin Citizen FC 50%, draw 26%, Mokpo City 24%.
How many goals are expected in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Mokpo City?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Dangjin Citizen FC 1.67 · Mokpo City 1.09), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Mokpo City?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.