Football · South Korea K3 League · 25/07, 12:00

Prediction: Gangneung City vs Yeoju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Gangneung City1.3

Yeoju1.06

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Gangneung City Draw Yeoju

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gangneung City 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLLWLL

Yeoju 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWDWLD

Head-to-head

Gangneung City 1–4–0 Yeoju (5 last)

Yeoju1-1Gangneung City
Gangneung City1-1Yeoju
Yeoju1-1Gangneung City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gangneung City 1467 · Yeoju 1505

	Gangneung City	Draw	Yeoju
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gangneung City	Yeoju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	1.5 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.41 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.02

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:07 +1’	2.15	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:11	2.41	3.00	3.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gangneung City 1–4–0 Yeoju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 South Korea K3 League	Yeoju	1-1 HT 0-0	Gangneung City
20/09/25 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	1-1 HT 1-0	Yeoju
24/05/25 South Korea K3 League	Yeoju	1-1 HT 0-1	Gangneung City
17/08/24 South Korea K3 League	Yeoju	3-4 HT 2-3	Gangneung City
21/04/24 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	0-0 HT 0-0	Yeoju

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	17	12	4	1	24	14	40
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	17	10	5	2	30	15	35
3	Daejeon Korail	17	9	4	4	27	12	31
4	Busan Trans Corp	17	8	6	3	26	13	30
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	18	7	4	7	29	26	25
6	Changwon City	17	6	7	4	18	16	25
7	Yeoju	17	5	6	6	20	22	21
8	Gyeongju HNP	17	4	7	6	23	24	19
9	Ulsan Citizen FC	17	5	4	8	17	19	19
10	Gangneung City	17	5	4	8	15	26	19
11	Chuncheon FC	17	4	5	8	30	29	17
12	Yangpyeong FC	17	3	7	7	20	29	16
13	Mokpo City	17	2	9	6	14	25	15
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	18	1	6	11	19	42	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gangneung City	Yeoju
Ulsan Citizen FC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Changwon City	0-1 L	2-2 D
Yangpyeong FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Siheung City AC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Daejeon Korail	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gangneung City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Paju Frontier FC South Korea Cup	0-0	2-3	4	2	L
11/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
04/07	Jecheon Citizen South Korea Cup	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
28/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-3	2-5	6	1	L
21/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
06/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
30/05	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
23/05	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
17/05	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	2	2	D
10/05	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-3	4	3	L

Yeoju

DDWLLWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Gyeongnam FC South Korea Cup	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/07	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
05/07	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea Cup	3-1	3-1	4	5	W
27/06	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-2	3	1	D
20/06	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	2	9	W
14/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3/K4 Championship	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
07/06	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
31/05	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
27/05	Sejong SA South Korea K3/K4 Championship	2-1	3-3	3	1	D
23/05	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gangneung City vs Yeoju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gangneung City win (41%). Probabilities: Gangneung City 41%, draw 29%, Yeoju 30%.

How many goals are expected in Gangneung City vs Yeoju?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Gangneung City 1.3 · Yeoju 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gangneung City vs Yeoju?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.