Football · South Korea K3 League · 26/07, 12:00
Prediction: Changwon City vs Jeonbuk Motors II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.21Total
Changwon City2.14
Jeonbuk Motors II1.08
1X2
Changwon City
Draw
Jeonbuk Motors II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Changwon City
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Jeonbuk Motors II
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Changwon City
3–0
Jeonbuk Motors II
(3 last)
- Jeonbuk Motors II2-3Changwon City
- Changwon City3-1Jeonbuk Motors II
- Jeonbuk Motors II0-2Changwon City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Changwon City 1534 · Jeonbuk Motors II 1405
| Changwon City | Draw | Jeonbuk Motors II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Changwon City (rating 1534 vs 1405).
- H2H favours Changwon City: 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Changwon City | Jeonbuk Motors II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/10/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.2 | 1.4 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Changwon City 3–0–0 Jeonbuk Motors II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 South Korea K3 League | Jeonbuk Motors II | 2-3 HT 1-3 | Changwon City |
| 01/08/25 South Korea K3 League | Changwon City | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Jeonbuk Motors II |
| 19/04/25 South Korea K3 League | Jeonbuk Motors II | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Changwon City |
Standings · South Korea K3 League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung City AC | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Pocheon Citizen FC | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 15 | 35 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 12 | 31 |
| 4 | Busan Trans Corp | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 30 |
| 5 | Dangjin Citizen FC | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 26 | 25 |
| 6 | Changwon City | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 25 |
| 7 | Yeoju | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 21 |
| 8 | Gyeongju HNP | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 19 |
| 9 | Ulsan Citizen FC | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 19 | 19 |
| 10 | Gangneung City | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 26 | 19 |
| 11 | Chuncheon FC | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 29 | 17 |
| 12 | Yangpyeong FC | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 29 | 16 |
| 13 | Mokpo City | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 15 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Changwon City | Jeonbuk Motors II |
|---|---|---|
| Chuncheon FC | 1-1 D | 1-6 L |
| Yeoju | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Dangjin Citizen FC | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Pocheon Citizen FC | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Changwon City (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Changwon City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Gimhae FC 2008 South Korea Cup |
0-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | Geumsan Insam South Korea Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 06/06 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/05 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
Jeonbuk Motors II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | Yeoju South Korea League Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Changwon City vs Jeonbuk Motors II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Changwon City win (60%). Probabilities: Changwon City 60%, draw 23%, Jeonbuk Motors II 17%.
How many goals are expected in Changwon City vs Jeonbuk Motors II?
The model expects 3.21 goals (Changwon City 2.14 · Jeonbuk Motors II 1.08), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Changwon City vs Jeonbuk Motors II?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.