Football · South Korea K3 League · 30/08, 12:00

Prediction: Ulsan Citizen FC vs Busan Trans Corp

Team pages: Ulsan Citizen FC · Busan Trans Corp

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Ulsan Citizen FC0.89

Busan Trans Corp1.24

1X2

25% 32% 43%

Ulsan Citizen FC Draw Busan Trans Corp

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ulsan Citizen FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLDWWLW

Busan Trans Corp 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDLWWW

Head-to-head

Ulsan Citizen FC 2–4 Busan Trans Corp (6 last)

Busan Trans Corp1-0Ulsan Citizen FC
Busan Trans Corp2-0Ulsan Citizen FC
Ulsan Citizen FC0-1Busan Trans Corp
Busan Trans Corp2-1Ulsan Citizen FC
Ulsan Citizen FC3-1Busan Trans Corp
Busan Trans Corp3-4Ulsan Citizen FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Busan Trans Corp (rating 1476 vs 1583).
H2H favours Busan Trans Corp: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ulsan Citizen FC	Busan Trans Corp
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.83

Under 2.251.96

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:55

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.44 → 3.44	Pinn 3.44
X	3.28 → 3.28	Pinn 3.28
2	2.02 → 2.02	Pinn 2.02

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +10’	3.44	3.28	2.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulsan Citizen FC 2–0–4 Busan Trans Corp

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 South Korea K3/K4 Championship	Busan Trans Corp	1-0 HT 0-0	Ulsan Citizen FC
19/04/26 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	2-0 HT 1-0	Ulsan Citizen FC
14/09/25 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Busan Trans Corp
18/05/25 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	2-1 HT 1-1	Ulsan Citizen FC
26/10/24 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Busan Trans Corp
16/06/24 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	3-4 HT 2-2	Ulsan Citizen FC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	19	13	4	2	26	15	43
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	19	11	6	2	33	16	39
3	Busan Trans Corp	19	10	6	3	34	18	36
4	Daejeon Korail	20	10	5	5	30	16	35
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	21	8	4	9	39	33	28
6	Changwon City	19	6	8	5	22	21	26
7	Gangneung City	20	7	5	8	19	28	26
8	Yeoju	19	6	7	6	23	24	25
9	Chuncheon FC	20	6	5	9	36	34	23
10	Gyeongju HNP	19	5	8	6	27	27	23
11	Ulsan Citizen FC	19	6	4	9	19	21	22
12	Yangpyeong FC	20	3	8	9	26	38	17
13	Mokpo City	19	2	9	8	15	33	15
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	21	1	7	13	21	46	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ulsan Citizen FC	Busan Trans Corp
Jeonbuk Motors II	1-0 W	2-1 W
Chuncheon FC	1-2 L	2-3 L
Yeoju	1-0 W	1-1 D
Mokpo City	4-1 W	3-0 W
Pocheon Citizen FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Changwon City	0-2 L	4-3 W
Yangpyeong FC	0-0 D	4-2 W
Siheung City AC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Busan Trans Corp (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ulsan Citizen FC

LDLLLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
26/07	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
10/07	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
27/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	4-1	6	1	W
20/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
30/05	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
23/05	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
16/05	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
09/05	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L

Busan Trans Corp

WDLWDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	3-0	4-3	2	5	W
26/07	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-2	4-2	4	4	W
11/07	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	2-0	2-0	1	0	W
28/06	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/05	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
23/05	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
16/05	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
09/05	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	3-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Busan Trans Corp?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Busan Trans Corp win (43%). Probabilities: Ulsan Citizen FC 25%, draw 32%, Busan Trans Corp 43%.

How many goals are expected in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Busan Trans Corp?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Ulsan Citizen FC 0.89 · Busan Trans Corp 1.24), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Busan Trans Corp?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.