Football · South Korea K3 League · 05/09, 12:00

Prediction: Ulsan Citizen FC vs Gyeongju HNP

Team pages: Ulsan Citizen FC · Gyeongju HNP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Ulsan Citizen FC1.05

Gyeongju HNP1.47

1X2

26% 28% 46%

Ulsan Citizen FC Draw Gyeongju HNP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ulsan Citizen FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLDWWLWW

Gyeongju HNP 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDDDLWWD

Head-to-head

Ulsan Citizen FC 1–3–2 Gyeongju HNP (6 last)

Gyeongju HNP2-2Ulsan Citizen FC
Gyeongju HNP2-2Ulsan Citizen FC
Ulsan Citizen FC3-4Gyeongju HNP
Ulsan Citizen FC1-4Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP1-2Ulsan Citizen FC
Gyeongju HNP0-0Ulsan Citizen FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ulsan Citizen FC 1498 · Gyeongju HNP 1508

	Ulsan Citizen FC	Draw	Gyeongju HNP
Our model	26%	29%	45%
Market	26%	28%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gyeongju HNP: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ulsan Citizen FC	Gyeongju HNP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.25

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.56 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.01

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:36 +5’	3.40	3.25	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:44	3.61	3.17	2.00
15:41	3.60▼	3.20▲	1.99▼
00:17	3.56▼	3.21▲	2.00▲
08:56 +1’	3.56	3.18▼	2.01▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulsan Citizen FC 1–3–2 Gyeongju HNP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 South Korea K3 League	Gyeongju HNP	2-2 HT 1-2	Ulsan Citizen FC
08/11/25 South Korea K3 League	Gyeongju HNP	2-2 HT 2-0	Ulsan Citizen FC
28/06/25 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	3-4 HT 1-4	Gyeongju HNP
25/08/24 South Korea K3 League	Ulsan Citizen FC	1-4 HT 0-2	Gyeongju HNP
28/04/24 South Korea K3 League	Gyeongju HNP	1-2 HT 1-1	Ulsan Citizen FC
01/07/23 South Korea K3 League	Gyeongju HNP	0-0 HT 0-0	Ulsan Citizen FC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	20	14	4	2	29	17	46
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	20	11	6	3	35	19	39
3	Busan Trans Corp	20	10	6	4	35	20	36
4	Daejeon Korail	20	10	5	5	30	16	35
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	21	8	4	9	39	33	28
6	Changwon City	19	6	8	5	22	21	26
7	Gangneung City	20	7	5	8	19	28	26
8	Ulsan Citizen FC	20	7	4	9	21	22	25
9	Yeoju	20	6	7	7	23	25	25
10	Chuncheon FC	20	6	5	9	36	34	23
11	Gyeongju HNP	19	5	8	6	27	27	23
12	Mokpo City	20	3	9	8	16	33	18
13	Yangpyeong FC	20	3	8	9	26	38	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	21	1	7	13	21	46	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ulsan Citizen FC	Gyeongju HNP
Busan Trans Corp	2-1 W	1-1 D
Jeonbuk Motors II	1-0 W	1-1 D
Chuncheon FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Yeoju	1-0 W	0-0 D
Mokpo City	4-1 W	1-0 W
Dangjin Citizen FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Pocheon Citizen FC	0-1 L	1-3 L
Yangpyeong FC	0-0 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 6 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ulsan Citizen FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ulsan Citizen FC

DLLLDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
26/07	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
10/07	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
27/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	4-1	6	1	W
20/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
06/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
30/05	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
23/05	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
16/05	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D

Gyeongju HNP

DWDDDDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-3	7	3	D
25/07	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
28/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-2	1-3	2	6	L
21/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
30/05	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
23/05	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
17/05	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
10/05	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	2-2	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Gyeongju HNP?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gyeongju HNP win (46%). Probabilities: Ulsan Citizen FC 26%, draw 28%, Gyeongju HNP 46%.

How many goals are expected in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Gyeongju HNP?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Ulsan Citizen FC 1.05 · Gyeongju HNP 1.47), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ulsan Citizen FC vs Gyeongju HNP?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.