Football · South Korea K3 League · 05/09, 10:00

Prediction: Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail

Team pages: Changwon City · Daejeon Korail

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Changwon City1.08

Daejeon Korail1.23

1X2

32% 29% 39%

Changwon City Draw Daejeon Korail

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Changwon City 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Daejeon Korail 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Changwon City 0–3–3 Daejeon Korail (6 last)

Daejeon Korail1-0Changwon City
Changwon City0-0Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail1-1Changwon City
Daejeon Korail3-3Changwon City
Changwon City0-1Daejeon Korail
Changwon City2-4Daejeon Korail

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changwon City 1497 · Daejeon Korail 1521

	Changwon City	Draw	Daejeon Korail
Our model	31%	31%	38%
Market	32%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Daejeon Korail: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changwon City	Daejeon Korail
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.20

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.75▼	Pinn 3.03 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.15 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:13 +14’	2.90	3.20	2.15
00:12 +4’	2.75▼	3.20	2.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:40 +1’	2.98	3.00	2.37
23:28	2.98	2.98▼	2.38▲
08:52	3.03▲	3.02▲	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changwon City 0–3–3 Daejeon Korail

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	1-0 HT 0-0	Changwon City
31/08/25 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	0-0 HT 0-0	Daejeon Korail
02/05/25 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	1-1 HT 1-1	Changwon City
05/07/24 South Korea K3 League	Daejeon Korail	3-3 HT 0-3	Changwon City
17/03/24 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	0-1 HT 0-1	Daejeon Korail
11/08/23 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	2-4 HT 0-2	Daejeon Korail

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	20	14	4	2	29	17	46
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	20	11	6	3	35	19	39
3	Busan Trans Corp	20	10	6	4	35	20	36
4	Daejeon Korail	20	10	5	5	30	16	35
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	21	8	4	9	39	33	28
6	Changwon City	19	6	8	5	22	21	26
7	Gangneung City	20	7	5	8	19	28	26
8	Ulsan Citizen FC	20	7	4	9	21	22	25
9	Yeoju	20	6	7	7	23	25	25
10	Chuncheon FC	20	6	5	9	36	34	23
11	Gyeongju HNP	19	5	8	6	27	27	23
12	Mokpo City	20	3	9	8	16	33	18
13	Yangpyeong FC	20	3	8	9	26	38	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	21	1	7	13	21	46	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changwon City	Daejeon Korail
Busan Trans Corp	3-4 L	1-0 W
Jeonbuk Motors II	1-1 D	4-0 W
Chuncheon FC	1-1 D	3-3 D
Yeoju	2-2 D	0-1 L
Mokpo City	1-1 D	3-0 W
Dangjin Citizen FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Pocheon Citizen FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Yangpyeong FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Daejeon Korail (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Changwon City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-3	3-4	5	5	L
26/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
12/07	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
27/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-2	8	1	D
20/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
06/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	7	1	W
30/05	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
23/05	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
16/05	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
09/05	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L

Daejeon Korail

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	1	7	L
25/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
11/07	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
28/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
20/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
06/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	2-2	3-3	3	6	D
31/05	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
23/05	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-0	3	1	W
16/05	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Daejeon Korail win (39%). Probabilities: Changwon City 32%, draw 29%, Daejeon Korail 39%.

How many goals are expected in Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Changwon City 1.08 · Daejeon Korail 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Changwon City vs Daejeon Korail?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.