Football · South Korea K3 League · 06/09, 11:00

Prediction: Pocheon Citizen FC vs Yeoju

Team pages: Pocheon Citizen FC · Yeoju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Pocheon Citizen FC1.98

Yeoju0.9

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Pocheon Citizen FC Draw Yeoju

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pocheon Citizen FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWDDWL

Yeoju 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLWDLDWL

Head-to-head

Pocheon Citizen FC 2–1–3 Yeoju (6 last)

Yeoju3-4Pocheon Citizen FC
Yeoju1-0Pocheon Citizen FC
Pocheon Citizen FC2-0Yeoju
Yeoju1-1Pocheon Citizen FC
Pocheon Citizen FC1-2Yeoju
Yeoju4-3Pocheon Citizen FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pocheon Citizen FC 1589 · Yeoju 1483

	Pocheon Citizen FC	Draw	Yeoju
Our model	62%	23%	15%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pocheon Citizen FC (rating 1589 vs 1483).
H2H favours Yeoju: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pocheon Citizen FC	Yeoju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.3	1.3 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.10

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.44
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.74 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +18’	1.42	4.10	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:21 +1’	1.41	4.13	5.97
21:00	1.37▼	4.27▲	6.35▲
10:17	1.44▲	4.00▼	5.74▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pocheon Citizen FC 2–1–3 Yeoju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 South Korea K3 League	Yeoju	3-4 HT 2-2	Pocheon Citizen FC
26/07/25 South Korea K3 League	Yeoju	1-0 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
06/04/25 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Yeoju
05/10/24 South Korea K3 League	Yeoju	1-1 HT 0-1	Pocheon Citizen FC
09/06/24 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Yeoju
04/03/23 South Korea Cup	Yeoju	4-3 HT 0-2	Pocheon Citizen FC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	20	14	4	2	29	17	46
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	20	11	6	3	35	19	39
3	Busan Trans Corp	20	10	6	4	35	20	36
4	Daejeon Korail	20	10	5	5	30	16	35
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	21	8	4	9	39	33	28
6	Changwon City	19	6	8	5	22	21	26
7	Gangneung City	20	7	5	8	19	28	26
8	Ulsan Citizen FC	20	7	4	9	21	22	25
9	Yeoju	20	6	7	7	23	25	25
10	Chuncheon FC	20	6	5	9	36	34	23
11	Gyeongju HNP	19	5	8	6	27	27	23
12	Mokpo City	20	3	9	8	16	33	18
13	Yangpyeong FC	20	3	8	9	26	38	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	21	1	7	13	21	46	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pocheon Citizen FC	Yeoju
Siheung City AC	2-3 L	0-1 L
Mokpo City	2-0 W	0-1 L
Daejeon Korail	1-1 D	1-0 W
Dangjin Citizen FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Gyeongju HNP	3-1 W	0-0 D
Gangneung City	3-1 W	1-1 D
Busan Trans Corp	1-1 D	1-1 D
Ulsan Citizen FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Changwon City	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pocheon Citizen FC (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pocheon Citizen FC

DWWDWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-3	2-3	6	5	L
22/08	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
28/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
21/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
06/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	14	3	D
30/05	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/05	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	3-0	5-1	5	5	W
16/05	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Yeoju

DDWLWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
22/08	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/07	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
10/07	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
27/06	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-2	3	1	D
20/06	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	2	9	W
07/06	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
31/05	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
23/05	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
16/05	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Yeoju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pocheon Citizen FC win (62%). Probabilities: Pocheon Citizen FC 62%, draw 22%, Yeoju 16%.

How many goals are expected in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Yeoju?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Pocheon Citizen FC 1.98 · Yeoju 0.9), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pocheon Citizen FC vs Yeoju?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.