Football · South Korea K3 League · 06/09, 12:00

Prediction: Gangneung City vs Busan Trans Corp

Team pages: Gangneung City · Busan Trans Corp

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Gangneung City1.37

Busan Trans Corp1.39

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Gangneung City Draw Busan Trans Corp

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gangneung City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Busan Trans Corp 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gangneung City 3–3 Busan Trans Corp (6 last)

Busan Trans Corp4-0Gangneung City
Gangneung City2-1Busan Trans Corp
Busan Trans Corp2-0Gangneung City
Gangneung City2-1Busan Trans Corp
Busan Trans Corp0-3Gangneung City
Gangneung City2-3Busan Trans Corp

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gangneung City 1496 · Busan Trans Corp 1553

	Gangneung City	Draw	Busan Trans Corp
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	35%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Busan Trans Corp (rating 1496 vs 1553).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gangneung City	Busan Trans Corp
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.5	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 3.01 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13.1% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +6’	2.50	3.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:24	2.85	3.13	2.37
21:00 +2’	2.92▲	2.92▼	2.46▲
03:47	2.91▼	2.94▲	2.45▼
07:05 +1’	3.01▲	2.93▼	2.36▼
10:19	3.01	2.94▲	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gangneung City 3–0–3 Busan Trans Corp

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	4-0 HT 0-0	Gangneung City
12/10/25 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	2-1 HT 1-0	Busan Trans Corp
06/06/25 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	2-0 HT 1-0	Gangneung City
13/07/24 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	2-1 HT 1-1	Busan Trans Corp
31/03/24 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	0-3 HT 0-1	Gangneung City
11/11/23 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	2-3 HT 0-2	Busan Trans Corp

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	20	14	4	2	29	17	46
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	20	11	6	3	35	19	39
3	Busan Trans Corp	20	10	6	4	35	20	36
4	Daejeon Korail	20	10	5	5	30	16	35
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	21	8	4	9	39	33	28
6	Changwon City	19	6	8	5	22	21	26
7	Gangneung City	20	7	5	8	19	28	26
8	Ulsan Citizen FC	20	7	4	9	21	22	25
9	Yeoju	20	6	7	7	23	25	25
10	Chuncheon FC	20	6	5	9	36	34	23
11	Gyeongju HNP	19	5	8	6	27	27	23
12	Mokpo City	20	3	9	8	16	33	18
13	Yangpyeong FC	20	3	8	9	26	38	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	21	1	7	13	21	46	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gangneung City	Busan Trans Corp
Jeonbuk Motors II	2-1 W	2-1 W
Chuncheon FC	1-0 W	2-3 L
Yeoju	1-1 D	1-1 D
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-3 L	1-1 D
Ulsan Citizen FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Changwon City	0-1 L	4-3 W
Yangpyeong FC	1-0 W	4-2 W
Siheung City AC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Busan Trans Corp (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gangneung City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
23/08	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
25/07	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
11/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-3	2-5	6	1	L
21/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
06/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
30/05	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
23/05	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
17/05	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	2	2	D

Busan Trans Corp

DLWDDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
22/08	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	3-0	4-3	2	5	W
26/07	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-2	4-2	4	4	W
11/07	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	2-0	2-0	1	0	W
28/06	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/05	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
23/05	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	2-1	2-3	5	2	L
16/05	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	6	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gangneung City vs Busan Trans Corp?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gangneung City win (36%). Probabilities: Gangneung City 36%, draw 28%, Busan Trans Corp 36%.

How many goals are expected in Gangneung City vs Busan Trans Corp?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Gangneung City 1.37 · Busan Trans Corp 1.39), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gangneung City vs Busan Trans Corp?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.