Football · South Korea K3 League · 13/09, 10:00

Prediction: Yangpyeong FC vs Pocheon Citizen FC

Team pages: Yangpyeong FC · Pocheon Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Yangpyeong FC1.04

Pocheon Citizen FC1.93

1X2

19% 24% 57%

Yangpyeong FC Draw Pocheon Citizen FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Yangpyeong FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWLDLL

Pocheon Citizen FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDDWLW

Head-to-head

Yangpyeong FC 2–4 Pocheon Citizen FC (6 last)

Pocheon Citizen FC2-0Yangpyeong FC
Pocheon Citizen FC1-0Yangpyeong FC
Yangpyeong FC1-2Pocheon Citizen FC
Yangpyeong FC1-0Pocheon Citizen FC
Pocheon Citizen FC0-1Yangpyeong FC
Yangpyeong FC0-3Pocheon Citizen FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yangpyeong FC 1416 · Pocheon Citizen FC 1591

	Yangpyeong FC	Draw	Pocheon Citizen FC
Our model	19%	24%	57%
Market	19%	24%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pocheon Citizen FC (rating 1416 vs 1591).
H2H favours Pocheon Citizen FC: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yangpyeong FC	Pocheon Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.3	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.2	2.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.70

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.77

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.75▲	Pinn 5.07 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.86
2	1.67 → 1.57▼	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:01 +5’	4.20	3.60	1.67
17:29 +22’	4.75▲	3.70▲	1.57▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:59 +20’	4.16	3.52	1.76
14:57 +174’	5.07▲	3.86▲	1.57▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yangpyeong FC 2–0–4 Pocheon Citizen FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Yangpyeong FC
21/09/25 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Yangpyeong FC
25/05/25 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
29/09/24 South Korea K3 League	Yangpyeong FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Pocheon Citizen FC
01/06/24 South Korea K3 League	Pocheon Citizen FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Yangpyeong FC
09/03/24 South Korea Cup	Yangpyeong FC	0-3 HT 0-1	Pocheon Citizen FC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	21	15	4	2	32	18	49
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	21	12	6	3	36	19	42
3	Daejeon Korail	22	11	5	6	31	17	38
4	Busan Trans Corp	21	10	7	4	36	21	37
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	21	8	4	9	39	33	28
6	Ulsan Citizen FC	22	8	4	10	23	24	28
7	Gangneung City	21	7	6	8	20	29	27
8	Chuncheon FC	21	7	5	9	37	34	26
9	Gyeongju HNP	20	6	8	6	29	28	26
10	Changwon City	20	6	8	6	22	22	26
11	Yeoju	21	6	7	8	23	26	25
12	Mokpo City	21	3	9	9	16	34	18
13	Yangpyeong FC	21	3	8	10	27	41	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	21	1	7	13	21	46	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yangpyeong FC	Pocheon Citizen FC
Siheung City AC	1-3 L	2-3 L
Daejeon Korail	1-2 L	1-1 D
Gyeongju HNP	3-3 D	3-1 W
Busan Trans Corp	2-4 L	1-1 D
Jeonbuk Motors II	5-2 W	5-1 W
Yeoju	1-2 L	1-0 W
Mokpo City	0-0 D	2-0 W
Dangjin Citizen FC	1-3 L	1-1 D
Gangneung City	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 6 L	5 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pocheon Citizen FC (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yangpyeong FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
29/08	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-2	3-3	5	3	D
26/07	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	2-1	2-4	2	4	L
12/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	2-1	5-2	4	5	W
27/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	3-3	2	6	D
20/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	8	9	L
07/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
30/05	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
23/05	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L

Pocheon Citizen FC

WWDWWDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/08	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-3	2-3	6	5	L
22/08	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
11/07	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
28/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-1	7	6	W
21/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
06/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	14	3	D
30/05	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/05	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	3-0	5-1	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yangpyeong FC vs Pocheon Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pocheon Citizen FC win (57%). Probabilities: Yangpyeong FC 19%, draw 24%, Pocheon Citizen FC 57%.

How many goals are expected in Yangpyeong FC vs Pocheon Citizen FC?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Yangpyeong FC 1.04 · Pocheon Citizen FC 1.93), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Yangpyeong FC vs Pocheon Citizen FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.