Football · South Korea K3 League · 12/09, 12:00

Prediction: Gangneung City vs Gyeongju HNP

Team pages: Gangneung City · Gyeongju HNP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Gangneung City1.07

Gyeongju HNP1.59

1X2

25% 27% 49%

Gangneung City Draw Gyeongju HNP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gangneung City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLDWWD

Gyeongju HNP 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDDLWWDW

Head-to-head

Gangneung City 1–1–4 Gyeongju HNP (6 last)

Gangneung City2-0Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP2-1Gangneung City
Gangneung City1-3Gyeongju HNP
Gangneung City1-2Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP2-1Gangneung City
Gangneung City1-1Gyeongju HNP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gangneung City 1505 · Gyeongju HNP 1518

	Gangneung City	Draw	Gyeongju HNP
Our model	24%	27%	48%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gyeongju HNP: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gangneung City	Gyeongju HNP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	1.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 2.08 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:20 +12’	3.60	3.40	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:07 +26’	3.45	3.12	2.08

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gangneung City 1–1–4 Gyeongju HNP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	2-0 HT 1-0	Gyeongju HNP
23/08/25 South Korea K3 League	Gyeongju HNP	2-1 HT 1-1	Gangneung City
27/04/25 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	1-3 HT 0-0	Gyeongju HNP
22/09/24 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	1-2 HT 1-1	Gyeongju HNP
25/05/24 South Korea K3 League	Gyeongju HNP	2-1 HT 1-0	Gangneung City
23/07/23 South Korea K3 League	Gangneung City	1-1 HT 1-1	Gyeongju HNP

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	21	15	4	2	32	18	49
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	21	12	6	3	36	19	42
3	Daejeon Korail	21	11	5	5	31	16	38
4	Busan Trans Corp	21	10	7	4	36	21	37
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	21	8	4	9	39	33	28
6	Gangneung City	21	7	6	8	20	29	27
7	Chuncheon FC	21	7	5	9	37	34	26
8	Gyeongju HNP	20	6	8	6	29	28	26
9	Changwon City	20	6	8	6	22	22	26
10	Ulsan Citizen FC	21	7	4	10	22	24	25
11	Yeoju	21	6	7	8	23	26	25
12	Mokpo City	21	3	9	9	16	34	18
13	Yangpyeong FC	21	3	8	10	27	41	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	21	1	7	13	21	46	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gangneung City	Gyeongju HNP
Busan Trans Corp	1-1 D	1-1 D
Jeonbuk Motors II	2-1 W	1-1 D
Chuncheon FC	1-0 W	2-2 D
Yeoju	1-1 D	0-0 D
Mokpo City	1-2 L	1-0 W
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-3 L	1-3 L
Ulsan Citizen FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Yangpyeong FC	1-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 5 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gangneung City (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gangneung City

WLWLLLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
29/08	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
23/08	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
25/07	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
11/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-3	2-5	6	1	L
21/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-3	3	4	L
06/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
30/05	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
23/05	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W

Gyeongju HNP

WDDDDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
22/08	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-3	7	3	D
25/07	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/07	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
28/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-2	1-3	2	6	L
21/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
06/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
30/05	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-2	1	2	D
23/05	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
17/05	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gangneung City vs Gyeongju HNP?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gyeongju HNP win (49%). Probabilities: Gangneung City 25%, draw 27%, Gyeongju HNP 49%.

How many goals are expected in Gangneung City vs Gyeongju HNP?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Gangneung City 1.07 · Gyeongju HNP 1.59), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gangneung City vs Gyeongju HNP?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.