Football · South Korea K3 League · 13/09, 10:00

Prediction: Siheung City AC vs Changwon City

Team pages: Siheung City AC · Changwon City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Siheung City AC1.6

Changwon City0.93

1X2

52% 26% 21%

Siheung City AC Draw Changwon City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Siheung City AC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLLWWW

Changwon City 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWDDDDLL

Head-to-head

Siheung City AC 3–2–1 Changwon City (6 last)

Changwon City1-1Siheung City AC
Siheung City AC2-0Changwon City
Changwon City1-2Siheung City AC
Siheung City AC1-0Changwon City
Changwon City2-2Siheung City AC
Changwon City1-0Siheung City AC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Siheung City AC 1550 · Changwon City 1493

	Siheung City AC	Draw	Changwon City
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	53%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Siheung City AC (rating 1550 vs 1493).
H2H favours Siheung City AC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Siheung City AC	Changwon City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	3.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.60

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.74
X	3.80 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	4.75 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.63 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:55 +12’	1.57	3.80	4.75
11:13 +5’	1.70▲	3.70▼	4.10▼
12:11 +23’	1.70	3.60▼	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:38 +41’	1.70	3.46	4.64
22:12 +318’	1.71▲	3.42▼	4.64
06:52 +67’	1.72▲	3.37▼	4.63▼
10:03 +150’	1.74▲	3.33▼	4.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Siheung City AC 3–2–1 Changwon City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	1-1 HT 0-0	Siheung City AC
13/07/25 South Korea K3 League	Siheung City AC	2-0 HT 0-0	Changwon City
15/03/25 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	1-2 HT 0-0	Siheung City AC
14/09/24 South Korea K3 League	Siheung City AC	1-0 HT 1-0	Changwon City
18/05/24 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	2-2 HT 2-2	Siheung City AC
22/09/23 South Korea K3 League	Changwon City	1-0 HT 0-0	Siheung City AC

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	21	15	4	2	32	18	49
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	21	12	6	3	36	19	42
3	Daejeon Korail	22	11	5	6	31	17	38
4	Busan Trans Corp	21	10	7	4	36	21	37
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	21	8	4	9	39	33	28
6	Ulsan Citizen FC	22	8	4	10	23	24	28
7	Gangneung City	21	7	6	8	20	29	27
8	Chuncheon FC	21	7	5	9	37	34	26
9	Gyeongju HNP	20	6	8	6	29	28	26
10	Changwon City	20	6	8	6	22	22	26
11	Yeoju	21	6	7	8	23	26	25
12	Mokpo City	21	3	9	9	16	34	18
13	Yangpyeong FC	21	3	8	10	27	41	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	21	1	7	13	21	46	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Siheung City AC	Changwon City
Pocheon Citizen FC	3-2 W	0-0 D
Daejeon Korail	2-0 W	0-1 L
Busan Trans Corp	0-2 L	3-4 L
Jeonbuk Motors II	1-1 D	1-1 D
Chuncheon FC	3-2 W	1-1 D
Yeoju	1-0 W	2-2 D
Mokpo City	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dangjin Citizen FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 5 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Siheung City AC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Siheung City AC

WDWWDLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	2-0	3-1	5	2	W
30/08	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	3-0	3-2	6	5	W
23/08	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
25/07	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
11/07	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-2	0-2	9	0	L
27/06	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
20/06	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	2-2	3-2	4	2	W
07/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
31/05	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
23/05	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	2-1	2-1	2	3	W

Changwon City

DWWWDDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
22/08	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-3	3-4	5	5	L
26/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
12/07	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
27/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-2	8	1	D
20/06	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
06/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	7	1	W
30/05	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
23/05	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
16/05	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Siheung City AC vs Changwon City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Siheung City AC win (52%). Probabilities: Siheung City AC 52%, draw 26%, Changwon City 21%.

How many goals are expected in Siheung City AC vs Changwon City?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Siheung City AC 1.6 · Changwon City 0.93), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Siheung City AC vs Changwon City?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.