Football · South Korea K3 League · 13/09, 10:00

Prediction: Dangjin Citizen FC vs Busan Trans Corp

Team pages: Dangjin Citizen FC · Busan Trans Corp

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Dangjin Citizen FC1.66

Busan Trans Corp1.55

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Dangjin Citizen FC Draw Busan Trans Corp

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dangjin Citizen FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWDWWLL

Busan Trans Corp 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWWLD

Head-to-head

Dangjin Citizen FC 1–1–2 Busan Trans Corp (4 last)

Busan Trans Corp2-1Dangjin Citizen FC
Busan Trans Corp0-2Dangjin Citizen FC
Busan Trans Corp3-0Dangjin Citizen FC
Dangjin Citizen FC0-0Busan Trans Corp

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dangjin Citizen FC 1512 · Busan Trans Corp 1541

	Dangjin Citizen FC	Draw	Busan Trans Corp
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Busan Trans Corp: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dangjin Citizen FC	Busan Trans Corp
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.6	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.4	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.40 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.64

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:50 +1’	2.25	3.50	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +31’	2.27	3.44	2.77
16:45 +66’	2.40▲	3.37▼	2.64▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dangjin Citizen FC 1–1–2 Busan Trans Corp

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	2-1 HT 0-0	Dangjin Citizen FC
30/03/23 South Korea Cup	Busan Trans Corp	0-2 HT 0-1	Dangjin Citizen FC
18/09/22 South Korea K3 League	Busan Trans Corp	3-0 HT 2-0	Dangjin Citizen FC
14/05/22 South Korea K3 League	Dangjin Citizen FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Busan Trans Corp

Standings · South Korea K3 League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	21	15	4	2	32	18	49
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	21	12	6	3	36	19	42
3	Daejeon Korail	22	11	5	6	31	17	38
4	Busan Trans Corp	21	10	7	4	36	21	37
5	Dangjin Citizen FC	21	8	4	9	39	33	28
6	Ulsan Citizen FC	22	8	4	10	23	24	28
7	Gangneung City	21	7	6	8	20	29	27
8	Chuncheon FC	21	7	5	9	37	34	26
9	Gyeongju HNP	20	6	8	6	29	28	26
10	Changwon City	20	6	8	6	22	22	26
11	Yeoju	21	6	7	8	23	26	25
12	Mokpo City	21	3	9	9	16	34	18
13	Yangpyeong FC	21	3	8	10	27	41	17
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	21	1	7	13	21	46	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dangjin Citizen FC	Busan Trans Corp
Chuncheon FC	3-4 L	2-3 L
Jeonbuk Motors II	2-0 W	2-1 W
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Gangneung City	5-2 W	1-1 D
Ulsan Citizen FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Changwon City	1-2 L	4-3 W
Yangpyeong FC	3-1 W	4-2 W
Siheung City AC	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dangjin Citizen FC (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dangjin Citizen FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	3-4	8	1	L
22/08	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
25/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	2-1	6-1	3	4	W
18/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
11/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
28/06	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	3-1	5-2	2	1	W
20/06	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
06/06	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
30/05	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
23/05	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	1-2	1-2	4	3	L

Busan Trans Corp

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
30/08	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
22/08	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	3-0	4-3	2	5	W
26/07	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	1-2	4-2	4	4	W
11/07	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	2-0	2-0	1	0	W
28/06	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/06	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/06	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/05	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
23/05	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	2-1	2-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Busan Trans Corp?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dangjin Citizen FC win (40%). Probabilities: Dangjin Citizen FC 40%, draw 25%, Busan Trans Corp 35%.

How many goals are expected in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Busan Trans Corp?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Dangjin Citizen FC 1.66 · Busan Trans Corp 1.55), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dangjin Citizen FC vs Busan Trans Corp?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.