Football · South Korea K League 3 · 07/11, 06:00

Prediction: Daejeon Korail vs Yeoju

Team pages: Daejeon Korail · Yeoju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Daejeon Korail1.48

Yeoju0.77

1X2

54% 26% 20%

Daejeon Korail Draw Yeoju

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Daejeon Korail 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Yeoju 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Daejeon Korail 3–2–1 Yeoju (6 last)

Yeoju1-0Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail3-3Yeoju
Yeoju0-3Daejeon Korail
Yeoju2-2Daejeon Korail
Daejeon Korail3-1Yeoju
Yeoju1-3Daejeon Korail

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Daejeon Korail 1495 · Yeoju 1477

	Daejeon Korail	Draw	Yeoju
Our model	53%	29%	18%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Daejeon Korail: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Daejeon Korail	Yeoju
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.9	1.1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.90

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.67 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +5’	1.60	3.90	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +23’	1.67	3.49	4.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Daejeon Korail 3–2–1 Yeoju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 South Korea K League 3	Yeoju	1-0 HT 1-0	Daejeon Korail
06/09/25 South Korea K League 3	Daejeon Korail	3-3 HT 1-1	Yeoju
09/05/25 South Korea K League 3	Yeoju	0-3 HT 0-0	Daejeon Korail
15/09/24 South Korea K League 3	Yeoju	2-2 HT 2-1	Daejeon Korail
17/05/24 South Korea K League 3	Daejeon Korail	3-1 HT 1-1	Yeoju
09/05/20 South Korea Cup	Yeoju	1-3 HT 0-3	Daejeon Korail

Standings · South Korea K League 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	25	17	5	3	38	22	56
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	25	14	8	3	43	22	50
3	Daejeon Korail	25	13	5	7	36	20	44
4	Busan Trans Corp	25	11	7	7	42	31	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	25	9	10	6	39	35	37
6	Chuncheon FC	25	10	6	9	43	37	36
7	Dangjin Citizen FC	25	10	5	10	47	39	35
8	Gangneung City	25	9	6	10	26	33	33
9	Changwon City	25	7	9	9	27	31	30
10	Ulsan Citizen FC	25	8	5	12	25	28	29
11	Yeoju	25	7	8	10	30	34	29
12	Mokpo City	25	5	10	10	24	40	25
13	Yangpyeong FC	25	4	8	13	30	49	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	25	1	8	16	27	56	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Daejeon Korail	Yeoju
Mokpo City	3-1 W	0-1 L
Dangjin Citizen FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Gangneung City	2-1 W	1-1 D
Ulsan Citizen FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Changwon City	1-0 W	2-2 D
Pocheon Citizen FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Gyeongju HNP	0-1 L	3-3 D
Busan Trans Corp	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Daejeon Korail (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Daejeon Korail

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Mokpo City South Korea K League 3	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
10/10	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
02/10	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
11/09	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
05/09	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
29/08	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
23/08	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-2	1	7	L
25/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
11/07	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
28/06	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W

Yeoju

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K League 3	2-1	3-3	3	3	D
10/10	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-2	1-2	1	4	L
03/10	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
06/09	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
30/08	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
22/08	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
25/07	Gangneung City South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
10/07	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
27/06	Changwon City South Korea K3 League	0-1	2-2	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Daejeon Korail vs Yeoju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Daejeon Korail win (54%). Probabilities: Daejeon Korail 54%, draw 26%, Yeoju 20%.

How many goals are expected in Daejeon Korail vs Yeoju?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Daejeon Korail 1.48 · Yeoju 0.77), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Daejeon Korail vs Yeoju?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.