Football · South Korea K League 3 · 07/11, 06:00

Prediction: Changwon City vs Gangneung City

Team pages: Changwon City · Gangneung City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Changwon City1.4

Gangneung City1.24

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Changwon City Draw Gangneung City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Changwon City 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDDLLLLWLD

Gangneung City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDLLWW

Head-to-head

Changwon City 3–3 Gangneung City (6 last)

Gangneung City0-1Changwon City
Changwon City2-1Gangneung City
Gangneung City1-0Changwon City
Gangneung City1-0Changwon City
Changwon City2-1Gangneung City
Changwon City1-2Gangneung City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changwon City 1444 · Gangneung City 1479

	Changwon City	Draw	Gangneung City
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changwon City	Gangneung City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.4	1.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.34
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.86 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +14’	2.25	3.20	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +23’	2.34	2.93	2.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Changwon City 3–0–3 Gangneung City

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 South Korea K League 3	Gangneung City	0-1 HT 0-1	Changwon City
13/09/25 South Korea K League 3	Changwon City	2-1 HT 0-0	Gangneung City
18/05/25 South Korea K League 3	Gangneung City	1-0 HT 1-0	Changwon City
05/10/24 South Korea K League 3	Gangneung City	1-0 HT 0-0	Changwon City
09/06/24 South Korea K League 3	Changwon City	2-1 HT 1-0	Gangneung City
14/07/23 South Korea K League 3	Changwon City	1-2 HT 0-0	Gangneung City

Standings · South Korea K League 3

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Siheung City AC	25	17	5	3	38	22	56
2	Pocheon Citizen FC	25	14	8	3	43	22	50
3	Daejeon Korail	25	13	5	7	36	20	44
4	Busan Trans Corp	25	11	7	7	42	31	40
5	Gyeongju HNP	25	9	10	6	39	35	37
6	Chuncheon FC	25	10	6	9	43	37	36
7	Dangjin Citizen FC	25	10	5	10	47	39	35
8	Gangneung City	25	9	6	10	26	33	33
9	Changwon City	25	7	9	9	27	31	30
10	Ulsan Citizen FC	25	8	5	12	25	28	29
11	Yeoju	25	7	8	10	30	34	29
12	Mokpo City	25	5	10	10	24	40	25
13	Yangpyeong FC	25	4	8	13	30	49	20
14	Jeonbuk Motors II	25	1	8	16	27	56	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changwon City	Gangneung City
Yangpyeong FC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Gyeongju HNP	1-2 L	0-1 L
Siheung City AC	1-3 L	2-1 W
Daejeon Korail	0-1 L	1-2 L
Busan Trans Corp	3-4 L	1-1 D
Jeonbuk Motors II	1-1 D	2-1 W
Chuncheon FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Yeoju	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gangneung City (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Changwon City

DDDLLLLWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K League 3	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
10/10	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-3	0	4	L
03/10	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
20/09	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
13/09	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	1-3	1-3	6	3	L
05/09	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
22/08	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-3	3-4	5	5	L
26/07	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
12/07	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
27/06	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-2	8	1	D

Gangneung City

LLDWWDLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Yangpyeong FC South Korea K League 3	2-0	3-0	9	2	W
11/10	Siheung City AC South Korea K3 League	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
02/10	Daejeon Korail South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
12/09	Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
06/09	Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
29/08	Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
23/08	Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
25/07	Yeoju South Korea K3 League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
11/07	Mokpo City South Korea K3 League	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/06	Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League	1-3	2-5	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changwon City vs Gangneung City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Changwon City win (40%). Probabilities: Changwon City 40%, draw 28%, Gangneung City 32%.

How many goals are expected in Changwon City vs Gangneung City?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Changwon City 1.4 · Gangneung City 1.24), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Changwon City vs Gangneung City?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.